Business

Why U.S. Economic Growth Has Disappointed This Year

Published

11 years ago

May 15, 2015

In this Friday, Feb. 6, 2015 file photo, a shopper pays for produce at a Farmers Market in downtown Los Angeles. Consumers have been uncharacteristically frugal, even as the country added jobs and a sharp drop in gas prices over the past year left them more money to spend. (AP Photo/Richard Vogel, File)

Christopher S. Rugaber, ASSOCIATED PRESS

WASHINGTON (AP) — Like an underachieving student, the U.S. economy isn’t living up to the high hopes it began the year with.

Consumers have been uncharacteristically frugal, even as the country added jobs and a sharp drop in gas prices over the past year left them more money to spend. Meanwhile, drilling companies reeling from cheaper oil have slashed spending much more rapidly than anyone expected.

A host of other, mostly temporary, factors have also weighed on growth. Harsh winter weather kept shoppers at home, and a labor dispute at West Coast ports slowed exports.

Yet hope is still alive for the second half of the year amid signs that the economy could regain lost momentum.

Employers are holding onto their existing workers, keeping layoffs at rock bottom, and adding staff — evidence that their outlook remains positive.

In a report Thursday, the government said applications for unemployment benefits are at the lowest level in 15 years, which means layoffs are low and job security is very high. Employers added 223,000 jobs in April, and the unemployment rate fell to 5.4 percent.

“Companies are implicitly telling us that they believe this is temporary,” says Joseph LaVorgna, an economist at Deutsche Bank. “They’re looking through the weakness from the ports and the weather.”

Indeed, the first half of the year is shaping up to be surprisingly lackluster.

Analysts estimate the economy may expand at an annual rate of just 2 percent in the April-June quarter after barely discernable growth of 0.2 percent in the January-March quarter. Some economists say the government’s next revision will likely send the figure into negative territory, possibly as low as minus 1 percent.

That would put growth in the first half of 2015 at a “pretty disappointing” 0.5 percent, says Michael Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan Chase. That’s a far cry from the 3 percent pace for all of 2015 that most economists expected late last year. Growth hasn’t reached that level since 2005.

The biggest reason behind the disappointment is consumers, who were widely expected to return to their free-spending ways.

Gas prices are still about $1 a gallon cheaper nationwide than a year ago, despite some recent increases. Steady hiring in the past year means 3 million more people are earning paychecks compared with a year ago. And consumer confidence has also risen in recent months.

Yet in the first three months of the year, Americans increased their spending by just 1.9 percent, the weakest gain in a year. A report on restaurant and retail sales Wednesday showed that spending was flat in April, crushing hopes for a stronger rebound.

“The disappearance of consumer spending in early 2015 has now become even more mysterious, as some of the excuses shopped around earlier, like bad weather, are looking more stretched with the passage of time,” Feroli says.

Most economists have concluded that Americans, at least so far, are reluctant to spend their savings from cheaper gas because they believe the drop in prices will be temporary. Meanwhile, spending by oil and gas companies on drilling rigs, steel pipes and other equipment plummeted nearly 50 percent in the first quarter, a much steeper drop than economists forecast.

“We expected (cheaper gas) to have a positive impact,” Paul Ashworth, an economist at Capital Economics, said. “It hasn’t.”

So are things turning around? Short answer: probably.

Many trends currently weighing on growth should fade. International trade will be less of a drag in the second half of the year, economists say. The dollar’s rise against other major currencies, such as the euro, has leveled off. A strong dollar has made exports more expensive, hurting sales in overseas markets.

A surge of imports in March, which widened the trade gap and cut growth, was probably a one-time event triggered by the resolution of the West Coast port dispute.

Consumer spending should rebound from the first quarter’s unusually low level. And spending by energy companies will likely stop falling by the third quarter, LaVorgna said. He expects growth will reach a 3 percent annual rate in the second half.

Home construction is also poised to lift growth. Harsh weather postponed many projects in January and February, but homebuilding rose 2 percent in March from the previous month.

Steady job gains will also help, giving more Americans paychecks that they will ideally spend.

___

Contact Chris Rugaber on Twitter at http://Twitter.com/ChrisRugaber
Copyright 2015 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

###

Reporter II

Posts by Reporter II

Up Next

Why U.S. Economic Growth Has Disappointed This Year

Don't Miss

5 Key Trends In Online Marketing and How to Build Your Strategy

Reporter II

Click to comment

Activism

Lu Lu’s House is Not Just Toying Around with the Community

Wilson and Lambert will be partnering with Mayor Barbara Lee on a toy giveaway on Dec. 20. Young people, like Dremont Wilkes, age 15, will help give away toys and encourage young people to stay in school and out of trouble. Wilkes wants to go to college and become a specialist in financial aid. Sports agent Aaron Goodwin has committed to giving all eight young people from Lu Lu’s House a fully paid free ride to college, provided they keep a 3.0 grade point average and continue the program. Lu Lu’s House is not toying around.

Published

2 days ago

December 20, 2025

Oakland Post

Tania Fuller Bryant, Zirl Wilson, Dremont Wilkes, Tracy Lambert and Dr. Geoffrey Watson. Courtesy Oakland Private Industry

Special to the Post

Lu Lu’s House is a 501c3 organization based in Oakland, founded by Mr. Zirl Wilson and Mr. Tracy Lambert, both previously incarcerated. After their release from jail, they wanted to change things for the better in the community — and wow, have they done that!

The duo developed housing for previously incarcerated people, calling it “Lu Lu’s House,” after Wilson’s wonderful wife. At a time when many young people were robbing, looting, and involved in shootings, Wilson and Lambert took it upon themselves to risk their lives to engage young gang members and teach them about nonviolence, safety, cleanliness, business, education, and the importance of health and longevity.

Lambert sold hats and T-shirts at the Eastmont Mall and was visited by his friend Wilson. At the mall, they witnessed gangs of young people running into the stores, stealing whatever they could get their hands on and then rushing out. Wilson tried to stop them after numerous robberies and finally called the police, who Wilson said, “did not respond.” Having been incarcerated previously, they realized that if the young people were allowed to continue to rob the stores, they could receive multiple criminal counts, which would take their case from misdemeanors to felonies, resulting in incarceration.

Lu Lu’s House traveled to Los Angeles and obtained more than 500 toys
for a Dec. 20 giveaway in partnership with Oakland Mayor Barbara
Lee. Courtesy Oakland Private Industry,

Wilson took it upon himself to follow the young people home and when he arrived at their subsidized homes, he realized the importance of trying to save the young people from violence, drug addiction, lack of self-worth, and incarceration — as well as their families from losing subsidized housing. Lambert and Wilson explained to the young men and women, ages 13-17, that there were positive options which might allow them to make money legally and stay out of jail. Wilson and Lambert decided to teach them how to wash cars and they opened a car wash in East Oakland. Oakland’s Initiative, “Keep the town clean,” involved the young people from Lu Lu’s House participating in more than eight cleanup sessions throughout Oakland. To assist with their infrastructure, Lu Lu’s House has partnered with Oakland’s Private Industry Council.

For the Christmas season, Lu Lu’s House and reformed young people (who were previously robbed) will continue to give back.

Lu Lu’s House traveled to Los Angeles and obtained more than 500 toys.

Oakland Post

Posts by Oakland Post

Activism

Desmond Gumbs — Visionary Founder, Mentor, and Builder of Opportunity

Gumbs’ coaching and leadership journey spans from Bishop O’Dowd High School, Oakland High School, Stellar Prep High School. Over the decades, hundreds of his students have gone on to college, earning academic and athletic scholarships and developing life skills that extend well beyond sports.

Published

2 days ago

December 20, 2025

Oakland Post

NCAA football history was made this year when Head Coach from Mississippi Valley State, Terrell Buckley and Head Coach Desmond Gumbs both had starting kickers that were Women. This picture was taken after the game. Courtesy photo.

Special to the Post

For more than 25 years, Desmond Gumbs has been a cornerstone of Bay Area education and athletics — not simply as a coach, but as a mentor, founder, and architect of opportunity. While recent media narratives have focused narrowly on challenges, they fail to capture the far more important truth: Gumbs’ life’s work has been dedicated to building pathways to college, character, and long-term success for hundreds of young people.

A Career Defined by Impact

One of his most enduring contributions is his role as founder of Stellar Prep High School, a non-traditional, mission-driven institution created to serve students who needed additional structure, belief, and opportunity. Through Stellar Prep numerous students have advanced to college — many with scholarships — demonstrating Gumbs’ deep commitment to education as the foundation for athletic and personal success.

NCAA football history was made this year when Head Coach from
Mississippi Valley State, Terrell Buckley and Head Coach Desmond
Gumbs both had starting kickers that were women. This picture was
taken after the game.

A Personal Testament to the Mission: Addison Gumbs

Perhaps no example better reflects Desmond Gumbs’ philosophy than the journey of his son, Addison Gumbs. Addison became an Army All-American, one of the highest honors in high school football — and notably, the last Army All-Americans produced by the Bay Area, alongside Najee Harris.

Both young men went on to compete at the highest levels of college football — Addison Gumbs at the University of Oklahoma, and Najee Harris at the University of Alabama — representing the Bay Area on a national level.

Building Lincoln University Athletics From the Ground Up

In 2021, Gumbs accepted one of the most difficult challenges in college athletics: launching an entire athletics department at Lincoln University in Oakland from scratch. With no established infrastructure, limited facilities, and eventually the loss of key financial aid resources, he nonetheless built opportunities where none existed.

Under his leadership, Lincoln University introduced:

Football
Men’s and Women’s Basketball
Men’s and Women’s Soccer

Operating as an independent program with no capital and no conference safety net, Gumbs was forced to innovate — finding ways to sustain teams, schedule competition, and keep student-athletes enrolled and progressing toward degrees. The work was never about comfort; it was about access.

Voices That Reflect His Impact

Desmond Gumbs’ philosophy has been consistently reflected in his own published words:

“if you have an idea, you’re 75% there the remaining 25% is actually doing it.”
“This generation doesn’t respect the title — they respect the person.”
“Greatness is a habit, not a moment.”

Former players and community members have echoed similar sentiments in public commentary, crediting Gumbs with teaching them leadership, accountability, confidence, and belief in themselves — lessons that outlast any single season.

Context Matters More Than Headlines

Recent articles critical of Lincoln University athletics focus on logistical and financial hardships while ignoring the reality of building a new program with limited resources in one of the most expensive regions in the country. Such narratives are ultimately harmful and incomplete, failing to recognize the courage it takes to create opportunity instead of walking away when conditions are difficult.

The real story is not about early struggles — it is about vision, resilience, and service.

A Legacy That Endures

From founding Stellar PREP High School, to sending hundreds of students to college, to producing elite athletes like Addison Gumbs, to launching Lincoln University athletics, Desmond Gumbs’ legacy is one of belief in young people and relentless commitment to opportunity.

His work cannot be reduced to headlines or records. It lives on in degrees earned, scholarships secured, leaders developed, and futures changed — across the Bay Area and beyond.

Oakland Post

Posts by Oakland Post

Activism

Black Arts Movement Business District Named New Cultural District in California

Located in the heart of District 3, the BAMBD is widely regarded as one of the nation’s most important centers of Black cultural production — a space where artists, entrepreneurs, organizers, and cultural workers have shaped generations of local and national identity. The state’s recognition affirms the district’s historic importance and its future promise.

Published

2 days ago

December 20, 2025

Oakland Post

Councilmember Carroll Fife celebrates major milestone for Black arts, culture, and economic power in Oakland. Courtesy photo.

By Post Staff

Oakland’s Black Arts Movement Business District (BAMBD) has been selected as one of California’s 10 new state-designated Cultural Districts, a distinction awarded by the California Arts Council (CAC), according to a media statement released by Councilmember Carroll Fife.

The BAMBD now joins 23 other districts across the state recognized for their deep cultural legacy, artistic excellence, and contributions to California’s creative economy.

“This designation is a testament to what Black Oakland has built — and what we continue to build when we insist on investing in our own cultural and economic power,” said Fife.

“For years, our community has fought for meaningful recognition and resources for the Black Arts Movement Business District,” she said. “This announcement validates that work and ensures that BAMBD receives the support it needs to grow, thrive, and continue shaping the cultural fabric of California.”

Since taking office, Fife has led and supported multiple initiatives that strengthened the groundwork for this achievement, including:

Restoring and protecting arts and cultural staffing within the City of Oakland.
Creating the West Oakland Community Fund to reinvest in historically excluded communities
Advancing a Black New Deal study to expand economic opportunity for Black Oakland
Ensuring racial equity impact analyses for development proposals, improving access for Black businesses and Black contractors
Introduced legislation and budget amendments that formalized, protected, and expanded the BAMBD

“These efforts weren’t abstract,” Fife said. “They were intentional, coordinated, and rooted in a belief that Black arts and Black businesses deserve deep, sustained public investment.”

As part of the Cultural District designation, BAMBD will receive:

$10,000 over two years
Dedicated technical assistance
Statewide marketing and branding support
Official designation from Jan. 1, 2026, through Dec. 31, 2030

This support will elevate the visibility of BAMBD’s artists, cultural organizations, small businesses, and legacy institutions, while helping attract new investment to the district.

“The BAMBD has always been more than a district,” Fife continued. “This recognition by the State of California gives us another tool in the fight to preserve Black culture, build Black economic power, and protect the families and institutions that make Oakland strong.”

For questions, contact Councilmember Carroll Fife at CFife@oaklandca.gov.