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Why U.S. Economic Growth Has Disappointed This Year

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In this Friday, Feb. 6, 2015 file photo, a shopper pays for produce at a Farmers Market in downtown Los Angeles. Consumers have been uncharacteristically frugal, even as the country added jobs and a sharp drop in gas prices over the past year left them more money to spend. (AP Photo/Richard Vogel, File)

In this Friday, Feb. 6, 2015 file photo, a shopper pays for produce at a Farmers Market in downtown Los Angeles. Consumers have been uncharacteristically frugal, even as the country added jobs and a sharp drop in gas prices over the past year left them more money to spend. (AP Photo/Richard Vogel, File)

Christopher S. Rugaber, ASSOCIATED PRESS

 
WASHINGTON (AP) — Like an underachieving student, the U.S. economy isn’t living up to the high hopes it began the year with.

Consumers have been uncharacteristically frugal, even as the country added jobs and a sharp drop in gas prices over the past year left them more money to spend. Meanwhile, drilling companies reeling from cheaper oil have slashed spending much more rapidly than anyone expected.

A host of other, mostly temporary, factors have also weighed on growth. Harsh winter weather kept shoppers at home, and a labor dispute at West Coast ports slowed exports.

Yet hope is still alive for the second half of the year amid signs that the economy could regain lost momentum.

Employers are holding onto their existing workers, keeping layoffs at rock bottom, and adding staff — evidence that their outlook remains positive.

In a report Thursday, the government said applications for unemployment benefits are at the lowest level in 15 years, which means layoffs are low and job security is very high. Employers added 223,000 jobs in April, and the unemployment rate fell to 5.4 percent.

“Companies are implicitly telling us that they believe this is temporary,” says Joseph LaVorgna, an economist at Deutsche Bank. “They’re looking through the weakness from the ports and the weather.”

Indeed, the first half of the year is shaping up to be surprisingly lackluster.

Analysts estimate the economy may expand at an annual rate of just 2 percent in the April-June quarter after barely discernable growth of 0.2 percent in the January-March quarter. Some economists say the government’s next revision will likely send the figure into negative territory, possibly as low as minus 1 percent.

That would put growth in the first half of 2015 at a “pretty disappointing” 0.5 percent, says Michael Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan Chase. That’s a far cry from the 3 percent pace for all of 2015 that most economists expected late last year. Growth hasn’t reached that level since 2005.

The biggest reason behind the disappointment is consumers, who were widely expected to return to their free-spending ways.

Gas prices are still about $1 a gallon cheaper nationwide than a year ago, despite some recent increases. Steady hiring in the past year means 3 million more people are earning paychecks compared with a year ago. And consumer confidence has also risen in recent months.

Yet in the first three months of the year, Americans increased their spending by just 1.9 percent, the weakest gain in a year. A report on restaurant and retail sales Wednesday showed that spending was flat in April, crushing hopes for a stronger rebound.

“The disappearance of consumer spending in early 2015 has now become even more mysterious, as some of the excuses shopped around earlier, like bad weather, are looking more stretched with the passage of time,” Feroli says.

Most economists have concluded that Americans, at least so far, are reluctant to spend their savings from cheaper gas because they believe the drop in prices will be temporary. Meanwhile, spending by oil and gas companies on drilling rigs, steel pipes and other equipment plummeted nearly 50 percent in the first quarter, a much steeper drop than economists forecast.

“We expected (cheaper gas) to have a positive impact,” Paul Ashworth, an economist at Capital Economics, said. “It hasn’t.”

So are things turning around? Short answer: probably.

Many trends currently weighing on growth should fade. International trade will be less of a drag in the second half of the year, economists say. The dollar’s rise against other major currencies, such as the euro, has leveled off. A strong dollar has made exports more expensive, hurting sales in overseas markets.

A surge of imports in March, which widened the trade gap and cut growth, was probably a one-time event triggered by the resolution of the West Coast port dispute.

Consumer spending should rebound from the first quarter’s unusually low level. And spending by energy companies will likely stop falling by the third quarter, LaVorgna said. He expects growth will reach a 3 percent annual rate in the second half.

Home construction is also poised to lift growth. Harsh weather postponed many projects in January and February, but homebuilding rose 2 percent in March from the previous month.

Steady job gains will also help, giving more Americans paychecks that they will ideally spend.

___

Contact Chris Rugaber on Twitter at http://Twitter.com/ChrisRugaber
Copyright 2015 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

###

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From Disparity Study to Solutions: Oakland Coalition and Mayor Barbara Lee Renew Commitment to Reform City Contracting

She committed to ensuring the coalition has direct access to City leadership by designating Assistant Deputy City Administrator Chuck Baker the primary liaison. Working alongside Deputy City Administrator Sofia Navarro, DWES Director Emylene Aspilla, Race and Equity Director Darlene Flynn, and other City departments, the coalition will continue advancing these priorities while maintaining regular communication with City leadership.

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Present at the recent meeting on implementing recommendations on Oakland’s Disparity Study on city work contracts were (first row, l. to r.):  Chuck Baker, Oakland Mayor Barbara Lee and Darlene Flynn. Second row, l. to r.) Samuel Adams, Erica Astrella, Chadwick Spell, Cathy Adams, Stanley Cooper, Maria Wagner, Len Turner, Derek Barnes, Paul Cobb. Photo courtesy of Oakland Mayor’s Office.
Present at the recent meeting on implementing recommendations on Oakland’s Disparity Study on city work contracts were (first row, l. to r.):  Chuck Baker, Oakland Mayor Barbara Lee and Darlene Flynn. Second row, l. to r.) Samuel Adams, Erica Astrella, Chadwick Spell, Cathy Adams, Stanley Cooper, Maria Wagner, Len Turner, Derek Barnes, Paul Cobb. Photo courtesy of Oakland Mayor’s Office.

Special to The Post

On June 30, a coalition of minority business leaders, contractors and others met with Oakland Mayor Barbara Lee to discuss the City’s commitment to implement recommendations outlined in Oakland’s Disparity Study and eliminate barriers that have historically prevented Black and minority-owned businesses from fully participating in public contracting opportunities.

Representatives of the Oakland African American Chamber of Commerce (OAACC), National Association of Minority Contractors Northern California (NAMC NorCal), Construction Resource Center (CRC), and the East Bay Rental Housing Association (EBRHA) said the meeting represented an important milestone in a process that has been underway for several months.

On April 21, the Oakland City Council’s Life Enrichment Committee received a progress report from the Department of Workplace and Employment Standards (DWES), where Director Emylene Aspilla presented the coalition’s working document and outlined a collaborative implementation plan between the coalition and the City. That report established 30-, 60-, and 90-day objectives focused on five key priorities:

  • Reforming Local and Small Local Business Enterprise (L/SLBE) waiver practices
  • Strengthening prompt payment compliance
  • Improving procurement forecasting and transparency
  • Expanding contractor capacity building and business development
  • Increasing oversight, accountability, and public reporting

A series of working sessions was scheduled between coalition representatives, DWES, and the City Administrator’s Office to begin implementing those priorities but were temporarily delayed by the resignation of former City Administrator Jestin Johnson.

Rather than allowing that momentum to stall, OAACC President and CEO Cathy Adams requested a meeting with Lee to gain clarity on the City’s direction and reaffirm its commitment to implementing the recommendations contained within the Disparity Study.

Coalition leaders described the meeting as productive, candid, collaborative, and encouraging.

During the meeting, Lee spoke not only from her role as mayor but also from her experience as an 8(a) contractor and business owner, sharing that she understands firsthand what it takes to build and grow a successful company, employ a substantial workforce, compete for public work, and navigate the complexities of municipal contracting.

She committed to ensuring the coalition has direct access to City leadership by designating Assistant Deputy City Administrator Chuck Baker the primary liaison. Working alongside Deputy City Administrator Sofia Navarro, DWES Director Emylene Aspilla, Race and Equity Director Darlene Flynn, and other City departments, the coalition will continue advancing these priorities while maintaining regular communication with City leadership.

Mayor Lee also expressed her commitment to personally participate in future working meetings with the coalition.

“This meeting represents a renewed commitment to partnership,” said Adams. “Mayor Lee listened, engaged, and demonstrated that she wants to move beyond conversation and into implementation.”

CRC’s Len Turner said the roadmap is already in place. ““The City already has the evidence. What’s been missing is execution. …Now it’s time to deliver results.”

Mario Wagner, president of NAMC NorCal agreed that the next phase must focus on implementation, funding, and accountability.

“The coalition is ready to get to work. …The next step is ensuring these initiatives receive meaningful funding in the upcoming fiscal budget cycle. Just as important, the City must establish transparent reporting mechanisms that keep the public informed through regular progress reports, measurable benchmarks, and accountability.”

Coalition leaders also acknowledged that while City leadership has indicated it is reviewing Local and Small Local Business Enterprise waiver practices, the community continues to seek a formal response regarding existing long-term waivers, including waivers extending 10 and 25 years. The coalition believes those waivers should be comprehensively reviewed and, where appropriate, rolled back as part of the City’s broader contracting reforms.

The coalition is also calling on the City to include meaningful funding in the upcoming fiscal budget cycle to support implementation of the Disparity Study recommendations and establish better methods and mechanisms to keep the public informed through regular progress reports, measurable benchmarks, and transparent accountability.

The coalition’s immediate next step is to schedule a working meeting with Baker, Aspilla, Lee, and the appropriate City staff to review what has already been accomplished under the implementation framework.

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COMMUNITY: What Trump’s Presidency Means for Black Economic Mobility

HOUSTON DEFENDER — Economic mobility for Black communities encompasses more than just income, including factors like homeownership, business creation, education, healthcare access, and voting rights.

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COMMUNITY: What Trump's Presidency Means for Black Economic Mobility

By any measure, economic mobility is about more than money.

The ability to buy a home, start a business, attend college, access healthcare, vote, and advocate for one’s interests all shape whether families can build wealth and pass opportunity to future generations.

That reality is why many economists and civil rights scholars argue that the policies emerging from President Donald Trump’s second administration have major implications for Black economic mobility.

Some supporters contend that Trump’s emphasis on deregulation, lower taxes, and merit-based policies could create broader economic growth. Critics argue that cuts to diversity initiatives, civil-rights protections, and social programs disproportionately harm Black communities that already face historic barriers to wealth accumulation.

The truth may ultimately be found somewhere between those competing narratives.

Economic mobility: Income and more

According to Federal Reserve data, the median wealth of Black families remains a fraction of that of white families. Black homeownership rates also continue to trail national averages, while Black entrepreneurs remain more likely to be denied financing and less likely to receive venture capital investment.

“Where you start in America still matters too much,” noted economist William Darity Jr., whose research has focused extensively on racial wealth disparities.

As corporations scaled back Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion initiatives and government agencies faced sweeping cuts, Black women were among the hardest hit. Between spring and late 2025, more than 300,000 Black women either lost jobs, left the workforce, or were pushed out of employment, according to labor data and economic reports tracking the crisis.

Credit: Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Unemployment among Black women climbed from 5.4% to as high as 7.3% by the end of the year — one of the steepest increases of any demographic group. These numbers have an outsized impact on Black communities because nearly 80% of Black mothers in America are primary, sole, or co-breadwinners for their families, according to the Institute for Women’s Policy Research.

And what has gone almost unnoticed is that between November 2025 and February 2026, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that 567,000 Black men lost their jobs across all sectors.

As a result, policy changes affecting employment, housing, education, healthcare, business development, and voting rights can have significant economic consequences.

Texas Southern University (TSU) Professor Michael O. Adams argues that the current U.S. “war economy” isn’t helping matters.

“We need more reinvestment into domestic kinds of issues,” said Adams. “I’m looking at healthcare, education, and economic development… the war economy takes away from those efforts.”

According to Fortune Magazine, the engagement—dubbed Operation Epic Fury—is producing a “war economy” that is costing U.S. taxpayers over $1 billion a day.

Housing: The foundation of wealth

Homeownership remains the primary source of wealth for most American families.

One area of concern among housing advocates is the Trump administration’s opposition to race-conscious housing and reparative programs. The administration recently challenged a housing-reparations initiative in Evanston, Illinois, arguing that race-based housing assistance violates civil-rights laws. Supporters of the program say such initiatives are designed to address generations of housing discrimination.

Critics worry that similar challenges could limit future efforts to narrow the racial homeownership gap.

At the same time, supporters of the administration argue that reducing regulations and increasing housing supply could help all buyers regardless of race.

Whether those broader market benefits outweigh the loss of targeted programs remains a subject of debate among housing economists.

Black businesses face new questions

Black-owned businesses generated record growth following the pandemic, yet many still rely heavily on government contracts, supplier-diversity programs, and technical-assistance initiatives.

One of Trump’s most consequential actions has been a series of executive orders that have ended or restricted Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) requirements in federal agencies and federal contracting. The administration argues these measures restore “merit-based opportunity” and equal treatment under the law.

However, many Black business advocates see potential economic risks.

The administration revoked Executive Order 11246, a civil rights-era policy that required federal contractors to take affirmative action to ensure equal opportunity.

Reuters reported that minority contractors have already expressed concerns that changes to disadvantaged-business programs could reduce opportunities for Black-owned firms competing for infrastructure and government projects. Some contractors reported revenue losses, delays, and layoffs connected to certification changes.

For cities like Houston, where minority-owned firms play a major role in public contracting, the long-term effects could be substantial.

Source: Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.

And with so many taxpayer dollars still directed towards the war in Iran, Houston’s roughly 200,000 Black businesses are on the front lines when it comes to being negatively impacted. Higher freight and energy costs, for instance, are wreaking havoc on already thin margins.

“I’m not sure people realize the tight margins small businesses operate within,” said Judson Robinson, president and CEO of the Houston Area Urban League. “When the price of oil needlessly skyrockets, the burden on Black people increases exponentially… it erases profit margins and can put you out of business.”

Education and workforce development

Higher education remains one of the strongest predictors of lifetime earnings.

The Trump administration has highlighted additional investments in Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs) as evidence of its commitment to expanding opportunity. The White House has promoted increased support for HBCUs and workforce development initiatives as part of its Black History Month agenda.

However, in September of last year, the Department of Education (ED) announced it would pull the plug on approximately $350 million in discretionary funds for institutions that enroll a high percentage of minority students, including HBCUs

Additionally, many education advocates argue that the broader anti-DEI campaign may reduce programs designed to recruit, retain, and support underrepresented students on college campuses.

The administration contends such programs often violate principles of equal treatment. Opponents argue they address documented disparities in access and outcomes.

Healthcare and economic security

Economic mobility is difficult without good health.

Healthcare cuts or reductions in public benefits often affect Black households disproportionately because Black Americans are more likely to rely on Medicaid and other public-health programs.

Policy analysts warn that reductions in healthcare access can produce long-term economic consequences, including higher medical debt, lower workforce participation, and reduced family wealth.

For many families, healthcare costs can be the difference between building savings and falling deeper into financial insecurity.

Voting rights and political power

Economic mobility is also connected to political power.

Voting determines who controls budgets, education funding, housing policy, infrastructure spending, and economic-development initiatives.

Civil-rights advocates have expressed concern that efforts to weaken federal oversight of voting protections could reduce political influence in Black communities. While supporters argue that election-integrity measures strengthen confidence in elections, critics contend that some policies not only create additional barriers to participation but also actively create a reality of voter suppression.

The economic implications are significant because communities with less political representation often have less influence over public investment decisions.

Bottom line

For Black America, economic mobility has never depended solely on individual effort. It has also depended on public policy. Federal and state policies moving forward may determine whether Black families can narrow longstanding wealth gaps—or whether those gaps become even harder to close.

Based on reporting by Houston Defender.



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Business

‘Michael’s’ Billion-Dollar Success Meets a Stunning Family Reversal

WASHINGTON INFORMER — As the film “Michael” achieved over $1 billion at the box office, making Michael Jackson’s estate the steward of the first music biopic to reach this financial milestone, a federal lawsuit involving the Cascio family has emerged. This suit highlights a complicated history involving financial difficulties for the family and an alleged unpaid $600,000 loan from Michael Jackson.

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**FILE** Michael Jackson

As the blockbuster “Michael” crossed the $1 billion mark at the worldwide box office and cemented Michael Jackson’s estate as the steward of the first music biopic ever to reach the milestone, another chapter involving one of the singer’s closest relationships has moved into federal court.

A lawsuit filed by four members of the Cascio family has generated headlines around the world. But court records, public financial filings and interviews with people close to the estate and Jackson family reveal a far more complicated story involving bankruptcy proceedings, tax liens, foreclosure litigation, an alleged unpaid $600,000 loan from Jackson himself and a family that for decades stood among the superstar’s most vocal defenders.

The federal complaint, filed in the U.S. District Court for the Central District of California, accuses Jackson of sexually abusing Edward Cascio, Dominic Savini Cascio, Marie-Nicole Porte and Aldo Cascio while they were children. It names the Michael Jackson Company, co-executors John Branca and the late John McClain, MJJ Productions, MJJ Ventures and others as defendants, asserting claims that include sex trafficking of children, negligence, fraud and breach of fiduciary duty.

For those who knew Jackson, however, the lawsuit represents an extraordinary reversal.

Jackson first met Dominic Cascio Sr. in 1984 while he was serving as banquet and general manager at New York City’s Helmsley Palace Hotel. The chance meeting developed into one of the closest friendships of Jackson’s adult life.

Over the next quarter-century, Jackson became a frequent guest at the Cascio family’s home in Hawthorne, New Jersey. He celebrated holidays with the family, spent extended periods there away from the pressures of celebrity and developed close relationships with the Cascio children. Just as significant, the family became one of the very few outside Jackson’s immediate relatives whom he trusted around Prince, Paris and Bigi Jackson, the children who today are among the principal beneficiaries of his estate.

That history makes today’s litigation particularly striking.

For years, Frank Cascio emerged as one of Jackson’s strongest public defenders.

In interviews, public appearances and his memoir, Frank Cascio repeatedly rejected allegations that Jackson abused children. He described Jackson as a loving friend and insisted the entertainer never behaved inappropriately toward him or members of his family. During appearances with Oprah Winfrey and Wendy Williams, he defended Jackson’s character and dismissed earlier accusations against the singer. Years later, members of that same family are now asking a federal jury to hold Jackson’s estate liable for allegations they say occurred decades ago.

People close to the estate and Jackson family say the lawsuit cannot be viewed apart from the family’s financial history.

Public court records reviewed by The Informer show that James Victor Porte, the husband of plaintiff Marie-Nicole Porte, sought Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in South Carolina in November 2025 before the case was converted to Chapter 7. During those proceedings, a bankruptcy judge granted a lender relief from the automatic stay, allowing foreclosure remedies involving real property to proceed.

Public records also show plaintiff Edward J. Cascio previously filed for Chapter 13 bankruptcy protection in New Jersey.

Additional public filings document federal tax liens involving the Portes.

Sources familiar with the estate also pointed to a residence in Spartanburg County, South Carolina, valued at approximately $1 million, while arguing that Jackson himself had already demonstrated extraordinary financial generosity toward the family years earlier.

According to multiple people familiar with Jackson’s finances, the singer loaned Dominic Cascio Sr. approximately $600,000. Those sources contend they have never found evidence the money was repaid.

“The apple doesn’t fall far from the tree,” one family associate said. “They are just trying to get money that they don’t deserve.”

The latest lawsuit also follows an earlier dispute first reported exclusively by the Informer.

Last September, The Informer revealed that the estate had accused former Jackson associates of attempting to obtain $213 million while threatening to publicize allegations they had spent years publicly denying. At the time, Branca described the effort as “a shakedown” and declared, “Enough is enough.”

Branca, who this week celebrated the new film’s milestone with social media postings, has consistently rejected accusations that Jackson abused children, speaking from a position few others occupied.

His relationship with Jackson stretched over decades. Although the two occasionally disagreed professionally, Jackson repeatedly returned to Branca for advice. Eight days before Jackson died in June 2009, the two reunited at rehearsals for “This Is It” at the Staples Center in Los Angeles.

“Trust was never easy for Michael,” Branca told the Black Press in a recent interview. “We had a wonderful relationship in the ‘80s and a little more challenging as time went on because there were so many people in his ear… We parted ways on more than one occasion over the decades, but we always reunited when it counted.”

When Jackson finalized his estate plan, he selected Branca and longtime music executive John McClain to serve as co-executors, a decision Branca said demonstrated the trust Jackson ultimately placed in them.

“In the end he chose to keep John McClain and me in the will as executors and that said a lot to us,” Branca said.

People familiar with internal estate discussions say Prince Jackson has also made his position clear regarding future settlements involving allegations against his father.

According to multiple sources, Prince has instructed the executors that there should be “no more payouts.”

“We always fought for Michael,” Branca explained.

Stacey Brown photo

Stacy M. Brown

stacybrownmedia@gmail.com

Stacy M. Brown is a senior writer for The Washington Informer and the senior national correspondent for the Black Press of America. Stacy has more than 25 years of journalism experience and has authored… More by Stacy M. Brown

Based on reporting by Washington Informer.

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