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Mass Incarceration No Factor in Crime Drop

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Crime Scene Tape

By Jazelle Hunt
NNPA Washington Correspondent

WASHINGTON, D.C. (NNPA) – The crime rate has been steadily decreasing for 25 years, but mass incarceration has had very little, if any, impact on the decline, according to a report from the Brennan Center for Justice at New York University.

The 134-page study, titled “What Caused the Crime Decline?” found that “when other variables are controlled for, increasing incarceration had a minimal effect on reducing property crime in the 1990s and no effect on violent crime.”

The report continued, “In the 2000s, increased incarceration had no effect on violent crime and accounted for less than one-hundredth of the decade’s property crime drop.”

Some states with large Black populations, such as Michigan, Texas, New York, and California, even reduced their prison populations during the crime decline with no adverse effects. Texas, for example, has decreased its imprisonment rate by 15 to 25 percent since 2000; at the same, both property crime and violent crime have dropped about 20 to 30 percent.

The NYU report examines the significance of several most-likely factors in the crime decline, such as increased police numbers, gun laws, unemployment, drug use, and more. Growth in income, decreased alcohol, and the aging population use were the three most important factors in the crime decline that the researchers could verify. Together, they were responsible for up to 25 percent of the drop in both violent and property crime.

Inflation and consumer confidence had some effect on property crime over the last 25 years to a lesser (and harder to prove) degree. In the ‘90s, but not the 2000s, decreased crack use, legalized abortion, and decreased lead in gasoline also “possibly” had some effect on both property and violent crime, according to the research.

Police departments were the wildcard.

On one hand, a rise in officer recruitment was responsible for up to 10 percent of the overall crime decline in the ’90s, though that effect has worn off over the last decade. Law enforcement’s CompStat approach – which uses data and technology to analyze local crime and direct attention and resources accordingly to reduce it – also appeared to have a positive effect on the nation’s 50 most populated cities; overall, it has been responsible for a 5 to 15 percent drop in crime where implemented.

But in city-by-city analysis of CompStat, its impact varies. In Oakland, Calif. for example, crime had increased 36 percent during the year before CompStat was introduced. During the year after, crime was down 4 percent. In Philadelphia, crime had increased 14 percent in the previous year, and another 8 percent the year after CompStat. In a more current example, New York’s crime rate fell during the NYPD slowdown in the wake of protests against the choking death of Eric Garner. But Baltimore is experiencing its deadliest month in 15 years since the Baltimore Police Department’s slowdown following the death of Freddie Gray while in police custody.

Further, the police are often a gateway to the criminal justice system and the first link in the chain of mass incarceration.

Mass incarceration has not only ceased to be a factor in deterring crime, it has also become a drain on American society.

The United States accounts for 5 percent of the world’s population but holds 25 percent of its incarcerated population. One in three Americans now has a criminal record. One in nine school-aged Black children has or has had a parent in prison. The Brennan Center calculates that federal prison spending has increased 1,100 percent in 30 years as a result of being overpopulated by more than 30 percent – fueling the rise of for-profit prisons that disproportionately house young Blacks and Latinos.

“When I say today’s unprecedented levels [of incarceration] I mean the 2.3 million Americans incarcerated today. Incarceration is not just any policy…incarceration comes with huge tolls. It costs $260 billion a year and it’s not doing anything to reduce crime,” said Lauren-Brooke Eisen, one of the report’s co-authors, speaking at an event on its implications.

“Research has shown, in fact, that the U.S. poverty rate has increased by 20 percent because of mass incarceration rate. There are proposals on the table to cut back on mandatory minimums, to curb nonviolent drug offenses, and there is renewed attention being paid across the country to rehabilitation to lower recidivism rates. All of these proposals are worth great consideration.”

Eisen believes that new sentencing policies are the best way to undo mass incarceration and its effects, adding that mandatory minimums sentencing caused a 750-percent growth in the federal prison system alone since the 1980s. Bipartisan bills such as the Smarter Sentencing Act (S. 502) and the Corrections Act (S. 467) target mandatory minimums for nonviolent offenses, and expand state-based programs that successfully deter crime and reduce recidivism.

“We are at somewhat of a crossroads. Many states and state policy makers, federal policy makers, and constituents have realized the economic and moral costs of mass incarceration, and have realized that it’s just not worth the expense,” Eisen said. “We are hoping that this report we just issued on the crime decline will provide additional evidence to policy makers in states and here on Capitol Hill that today’s unprecedented levels of incarceration are not making us safer.”

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Economy

How the Sandwich Generation Can Help Protect Aging Parents’ Finances

One in four American adults now belongs to the “sandwich generation,” balancing the demands of raising children while supporting aging parents. Women frequently bear a disproportionate share of this responsibility, facing significant physical and financial strain. With November designated as Chase Fraud & Scam Prevention Month, caregivers are encouraged to initiate vital conversations regarding financial snapshots and long-term goals. Establishing a proactive plan and building a support system can help secure a family’s legacy while defending against common predatory tactics, and you can read more here.

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Planning and scam prevention tips for caregivers balancing kids and parents

If you’re raising children while also supporting an older parent, you’re likely managing schedules, healthcare needs, day-to-day decisions and even finances. People in this group are often called the “sandwich generation,” which now encompasses one in four adults in the U.S.

Women also often carry a disproportionate share of this responsibility: three in five family caregivers are women. Women are more likely to report physical, emotional and financial strain from caregiving, which can make it harder to protect their own well-being and long-term financial security. 

For the sandwich generation, the holidays can be a natural time to talk with parents about money, including how to protect their finances from scams. November is Chase Fraud & Scam Prevention Month – designed to help people recognize common scams, avoid in-the-moment mistakes and better protect their money and personal information.

Here are some tips to keep in mind.

Check In and Make a Plan

Finances can be incredibly personal, and many parents worry that accepting help means losing independence. Start by framing the conversation around peace of mind and organization – not control.

Check in on your finances and long-term plan, too. You’ll be better equipped to care for others when your own financial foundation is secure. 

Also consider helping your parents create a “financial snapshot.” J.P. Morgan Wealth Management’s guide for supporting aging parents outlines a few considerations:

  • Location of key accounts: banking, investments, retirement, credit cards, insurance
  • How bills and recurring expenses are paid
  • Whether beneficiaries are up to date
  • Where important documents are stored and who has access

Then ask what goals matter most in the years ahead: staying in their home, supporting family, traveling, planning for healthcare or leaving a legacy. Goals can evolve, so revisit them periodically. Planning tools can help – like J.P. Morgan Wealth Plan, a free digital money coach in the Chase Mobile® app or at chase.com.

A financial advisor can help create a plan tailored to you and your parents’ needs. An estate planning attorney can document your parents’ wishes, including who may act if they cannot make decisions themselves. 

Understand Common Scams 

Scammers often use urgency, fear, secrecy or affection to pressure people into acting quickly. Recognizing these tactics can help you and your family spot red flags sooner. Common scams include: 

  • Investment scams: Promises of high or “guaranteed” returns with little risk. 
  • Tech support scams: Requests for payment or remote device access. 
  • Impersonation scams: Messages impersonating trusted organizations or loved ones, asking for money, passwords, account details or other personal information. 
  • Romance scams: Online relationships that lead to requests for money. 

Chase hosts more than 1,000 free fraud and scam prevention workshops annually, including hundreds across all lower 48 states throughout November.

Stay Proactive and Vigilant 

If you or a loved one suspects a scam, slow down and stop communicating with the individual immediately. Contact your bank through a trusted channel to review recent transactions and report the incident to appropriate authorities.

Also consider a few simple steps for protection: 

  • “Trusted Contact Person”: Designate a trusted adult who may be notified about certain online wire activity. 
  • Tech tips: Use unique passwords, multifactor authentication and account alerts, keep devices updated and monitor accounts regularly for unusual activity. 
  • Behavior changes: Watch for secrecy around finances, unusual transactions, unexpected changes to financial documents or pressure from new acquaintances. 

You’re Not Alone

Caregiving is demanding, and it shouldn’t be a solo effort. Build a support system – which can include family, friends and professionals such as healthcare providers, attorneys and financial advisors. A thoughtful conversation now can help your parents stay organized and protected in the future.

For free educational resources on planning for yourself and loved ones, visit chase.com/theknow

For more information and practical tips about fraud and scam prevention, visit chase.com/security

The views, opinions, estimates and strategies expressed herein constitutes the author’s judgment based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice and may differ from those expressed by other areas of J.P. Morgan.

This information in no way constitutes J.P. Morgan Research and should not be treated as such. You should carefully consider your needs and objectives before making any decisions. For additional guidance on how this information should be applied to your situation, you should consult your advisor.

JPMorgan Chase & Co., its affiliates, and employees do not provide tax, legal or accounting advice. You should consult your own tax, legal and accounting advisors before engaging in any financial transaction.

J.P. Morgan Wealth Management is a business of JPMorgan Chase & Co., which offers investment products and services through J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (JPMS), a registered broker-dealer and investment adviser, member FINRA and SIPC.

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Education

As Progressive Democrats Celebrate ‘Blue Tsunami,’ Oakland Counts Victories

As national Democrats celebrate a significant shift in the midterm elections, local leaders in Oakland are tracking early results from the Alameda County Registrar of Voters. While Mayor Barbara Lee and several City Council incumbents have secured decisive victories, attention remains fixed on high-stakes school board contests. Progressive candidates currently face strong challenges from opponents backed by corporate funding and local political organizations. With many ballots still uncounted, the final composition of the board and several regional transit measures remain in the balance. Read more.

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Barbara Lee. File photo.

Concerns remain over school board races as ‘moderates’ lead progressives

The Alameda County Registrar of Voters has released the first round of election results, though many ballots remain uncounted and results are still incomplete.

Nationally, Democrats, liberals and progressives celebrated Tuesday evening as President Donald Trump was dealt a devastating blow in the midterm election. The Republican Party lost control of the Senate and the House as “Maga” candidates were swept away not just by a ‘blue wave,’ but a ‘blue tsunami.’

In Oakland, incumbent Mayor Barbara Lee, who served two years and ran for a full four-year term, won decisively.

A proposal backed by Lee, Measure EE, also won. The Charter amendment will create a strong mayor system of government while providing the City Council with new checks and balances on mayoral power.

District 2 Councilmember Charlene Wang is leading with 65.62% of the vote. Opponent Nate Adams trails with 34.38%.

District 4 Councilmember Janani Ramachandran, ran unopposed for reelection, receiving 14,029 votes.

District 6 Councilmember Kevin Jenkins bested opponent Nancy Sidebotham and District 2’s Charlene Wang also won reelection.

City Auditor Michael Houston is running unopposed for reelection and won 60,773 votes.

Progressive school board members, Jennifer Brouhard (D2) and Valarie Bachelor (D6), supported by teachers and school activists, face serious challenges from candidates backed by pro-corporate funders and the political organization, Empower Oakland.

Arielle Fleisher leads Brouhard 53.49% to 46.51%.

In District 6 with three contending candidates, Alexandra Williams leads with 38.06% of the vote. Incumbent Bachelor has 36.89%, and Leana Powell is trailing with 25.04%.

In District 4, incumbent Mike Hutchinson is narrowly leading a field of three candidates. He received 40.87% of the vote, while Kathryn Camp has 39.92%, and Sylvia Pfeiffer Williams has 19.21%.

In the races for AC Transit Board, Director Joel Young (Ward 3) leads with 53.11% of the vote, Sarah Syed (Ward 4) is ahead with 78.37% of the vote, and Murphy McCalley (Ward 5) leads with 63.07%.

Regional Transit Measure RTM, which would increase sales taxes in five Bay Area counties to shore up BART and other regional transit, was leading in five counties by a combined 62% of the vote.

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Community

Golden State Valkyries Become Bay Area Legends Winning WNBA Championship on Halloween Night

In only their second year as a franchise, the Golden State Valkyries captured the 2026 WNBA Championship with a 68-63 victory over the Atlanta Dream. Playing before a sold-out crowd at Chase Center on Halloween night, Gabby Williams delivered a historic 30-point performance to earn Finals MVP honors. The victory marks a rapid rise for the expansion team, which has already set league attendance records and surpassed a $1 billion valuation. Fans gathered by the hundreds of thousands this week to celebrate the new Bay Area legends, read more.

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“We’re so proud,” said Mayor Barbara Lee who donned a violet wig on Wednesday at a rally honoring the Golden State Valkyries as the team celebrated its historic 2026 WNBA Championship in Oakland. Photo courtesy of NBC.

In only their second year as a franchise, the Golden State Valkyries became the WBNA 2026 Champions, with Gabby Williams named WNBA Finals MVP. A Halloween night movie of magic and there was no surprise that the game was sold out, with more than 18,000 fans inside Chase Center while thousands more packed the open space at Thrive Center from hours preceding the game through the final buzzer.

In the decisive Game 7, Williams delivered a legendary performance, scoring 30 points to lead the Golden State Valkyries to a 68-63 championship victory over the Atlanta Dream. Remarkably, 28 of her 30 points came in the second half, setting a WNBA postseason record for points in a half and earning her Finals MVP honors.

The team celebrated its victory on Wednesday with a rally in Oakland followed by a ferry ride to San Francisco’s Embarcadero and then a two-mile parade that drew about 400,000 fans.

Williams has become a symbol of the Bay Area’s impact on the team. Although born in Nevada, Williams has deep family roots in Oakland and has often said the city’s culture, community, and basketball traditions shaped her identity and playing style.

After signing with the Valkyries, she began calling the city home and noting that “there’s no Golden State without Oakland.”

The Valkyries have several ballers who made an impact on winning this series, including Veronica Burton, Tiffany ‘Tip’ Hayes, Kayla Thornton, Kaila Charles, and Cecilia Zandalasini.

Veteran center Kiah Stokes brought championship experience and defensive leadership when she signed a multi-year free-agent contract with the franchise on April 13. A former first-round draft pick out of UConn and a three-time WNBA champion with the Las Vegas Aces before joining Golden State, Stokes was recruited by head coach Natalie Nakae, with whom she had previously worked in Las Vegas.

Known as one of the league’s premier rim protectors and rebounders, Stokes quickly became a defensive anchor for the expansion franchise and played a major role in leading the Valkyries to their historic championship run.

The Valkyries have accomplished something extraordinary, proving that a new franchise can make an immediate impact both on and off the court. In their first year, the Valkyries became the first WNBA expansion team to reach the playoffs in its inaugural season and set all-time league attendance records. The franchise sold out all home games, reporting 18,064 attendees per game in both seasons — the highest attendance figures in WNBA history. The Valkyries’ success has also translated into extraordinary franchise value. After entering the league by paying a $50 million expansion fee, the organization generated record revenues and rapidly became one of the most valuable franchises in women’s sports, valued at over $! billion.

The WNBA Finals’ deciding game averaged 3.3 million viewers, making it the most-watched WNBA playoff game in league history and the most-watched finals game since 1999.

The record audience reflects the league’s growing popularity and has major implications for its future, including higher media rights value, increased advertising revenue, stronger sponsorship opportunities, rising merchandise sales, and greater ticket demand.

The Finals also featured sold-out arenas and record postseason viewership, demonstrating that the WNBA is expanding its commercial reach, attracting new fans, and strengthening its position as a major professional sports league.

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