Homeless

How Accurate is Our Homeless Count?

Published

6 years ago

August 30, 2019

Oakland’s Wood Street curbside community in West Oakland between West Grand Ave and 26th Street is home to many unhoused people, but no one knows exactly how many. Photo by Zack Haber.

Oakland’s population of unhoused residents may be much higher than the July Point- In-Time census that showed a 47% increase over the last count in 2017.

The total of 4,071 of homeless residents made headlines, but unhoused residents, their advocates, and those who’ve studied or participated in the PIT count see its figures as an undercount.

“The PIT count is not designed to be a comprehensive analysis of the homeless population,” said Margaretta Lin, executive director of the Dellums institute and a former Oakland Deputy City Administrator. “But because it’s the only good number we have on homelessness, that number sticks in the public’s imagination.”

The PIT count has been performed every two years in Oakland since The Department of Housing and Urban Development mandated the count for all communities that receive federal funding for homelessness.

The vast majority of PIT totals come from volunteers individually counting homeless people during about three hours on one day. In Oakland, that day is January 30th, early in the morning in the middle of winter, a time when unhoused people who can find temporary shelter would be most likely to.

Alastair Boone, who participated in 2019’s PIT count and wrote about the experience in an article for CityLab, reported that about 600 volunteers and 150 guides participated in the count. She worked with one other volunteer and one guide to search through a residential area in East Oakland but she didn’t find a single homeless person.

While she attributes her inability to find homeless people in the area to the fact that she was in a relatively wealthy neighborhood, she also thinks she missed people.

“We…probably missed people who were hidden from view,” said Boone, “they were in alcoves or cars, or in the homes and apartments of friends and relatives, sleeping on couches and floors.”

The discrepancy between the total PIT count increases of unsheltered and temporarily sheltered residents also suggests that temporarily sheltered residents are especially undercounted. While PIT’s count of unsheltered homeless residents increased 59% from 3,210 to 4,071 between the 2017 and 2019 counts, its counts of sheltered homeless residents in those years remained almost exactly the same. In 2017 PIT’s total temporarily sheltered homeless count was 859; in 2019 it was 861.

According to a 2017 report by The National Law Center on Homelessness & Poverty (NLCHP), since PIT counts use the amount of filled beds in homeless shelters to measure its count of sheltered homeless residents, they can’t do an accurate measure in areas like Oakland where beds at shelters are generally filled to capacity.

“The count of sheltered homeless individuals indicates a city’s supply of shelter beds rather than the demand for shelter or housing” the NLCHP report reads.

Since the PIT count generally uses the same methodology, Margaretta Lin thinks it can be effective to measure trends and fluctuations in homeless population but she also feels more studies and alternate methods of counting should be used to get a more accurate count.

She pointed out that a 2014-2015 study conducted by Alameda County’s Healthcare for the Homeless (ACHCH) found that 18,000 people were homeless while the 2015 PIT summary counted just 4,040.

ACHCH’s count was determined by measuring how many homeless people used county services instead of counting homeless people on one day.

James Vann of the Homeless Advocacy Working Group (HAWG) says the organization estimates Oakland’s current homeless population at between 9,000 and 11,000. HAWG has identified 92 encampments, which they define as any group of four or more people living together unhoused, and does regular counts at them.

“Our count is a real increase from two years ago,” Vann said, “when we counted between 40 and 45 encampments.”

Zack Haber

Posts by Zack Haber

Activism

Mayor Lee, City Leaders Announce $334 Million Bond Sale for Affordable Housing, Roads, Park Renovations, Libraries and Senior Centers

Saying “Oakland is on the move,” Mayor Barbara Lee announces results of Measure U bond sale, Dec. 9, at Oakland City Hall with city councilmembers and city staff among those present. Photo courtesy of the City of Oakland.

Published

2 days ago

December 14, 2025

Oakland Post

Saying “Oakland is on the move,” Mayor Barbara Lee announces results of Measure U bond sale, Dec. 9, at Oakland City Hall with city councilmembers and city staff among those present. Photo courtesy of the City of Oakland.

By Post Staff

The City of Oakland announced this week that it is successfully moving forward on the sale of $334 million of General Obligation bonds, a milestone that will provide the city with capital funding for city departments to deliver paved roads, restored public facilities, and investments in affordable housing.

“Oakland is on the move and building momentum with this bond sale,” said Oakland Mayor Barbara Lee. “We are reviving access to funding for paving our streets, restoring public facilities we all use and depend upon, and investing in affordable housing for our community, all while maintaining transparency and fiscal discipline.”

“These bonds represent our city’s continued commitment to sound financial management and responsible investment in Oakland’s future,” said Lee.

“Together, we are strengthening our foundation for generations to come,” she said. “I’m grateful to our partners in the City Council for their leadership and support, and to City Administrator Jestin Johnson for driving this process and ensuring we brought it home.”

According to the city, $285 million of the bonds will support new projects and $49 million of the bonds will refund existing bonds for debt service savings.

Oakland issued the Measure U bonds on Dec. 4 after two years of delays over concerns about the city’s financial outlook. They all sold in less than a week.

The new money bonds will pay for affordable housing, roadway safety and infrastructure improvements, and renovations to parks, libraries, senior centers, and other public facilities under the city’s Measure U Authorization.

Citywide paving and streetscape projects will create safer streets for Oaklanders. Additionally, critical facilities like the East Oakland Senior Center and San Antonio Park will receive much-needed renovations, according to the city.

Some of the projects:

$50.5 million – Citywide Street Resurfacing
$13 million – Complete Streets Capital Program
$9.5 million – Curb Ramps Program
$30 million – Acquisition & Preservation of Existing Affordable Housing
$33 million – District 3: Mandela Transit-Oriented Development
$28 million – District 6: Liberation Park Development
$3 million – District 5: Brookdale Recreation Center Capital Project
$1.5 million – District 1: Oakland Tool Lending Library (Temescal Branch Library)
$10 million – District 3: Oakland Ice Center

“I recognize that many naysayers said we couldn’t do it,” said Johnson. “Well, you know what? We’re here now. And we’re going to be here next year and the year after. The fact is we’re getting our fiscal house in order. We said we were going to do it — and we’re doing it.”

Investors placed $638 million in orders for the $334 million of bonds offered by the City. There was broad investor demand with 26 separate investment firms placing orders. The oversubscription ultimately allowed the city to lower the final interest rates offered to investors and reduce the city’s borrowing cost.

“The oversubscription ultimately allowed the City to lower the final interest rates offered to investors and reduce the City’s borrowing cost,” said Sean Maher, the city’s communications director.

“The Oakland City Council worked closely with the administration to both advance the bond issuance process and ensure that the community had a clear understanding of the City’s timeline and approach,” said Councilmember at-Large Rowena Brown.

“In September, the City Council took unanimous action to authorize the Administration to move forward with the bond sale because these funds are essential to delivering the very improvements our communities have long asked for – safer streets, restored public facilities, and expanded affordable housing,” she said.

Continuing, Brown said, “I want to extend my sincere thanks to City Administrator Jestin Johnson, Finance Director Bradley Johnson, and Mayor Barbara Lee for their leadership, diligence, and steady guidance throughout the City’s bond sale efforts.

“Navigating complex market conditions while keeping Oakland’s long-term infrastructure needs front and center is no small task, and this moment reflects tremendous professionalism and persistence,” she said.

Moody’s gave the city an AA2 rating on the bonds, its third-highest rating, which it gives to high-quality investment-grade securities.

There was both a tax-exempt portion and a taxable portion for the bond offering, reflecting the various uses of the bond proceeds, according to a statement released by the city.

The $143.5 million of tax-exempt bonds have a 30-year final maturity and received an all-in borrowing cost of 3.99%. The $191 million of taxable bonds have a 24-year final maturity and received an all-in borrowing cost of 5.55%.

The $49 million in tax-exempt bonds that refinance existing obligations of the City resulted in $5.6 million of debt service savings for taxpayers through 2039, or $4.7 million on a present value basis.

Mayor Lee said that, based on her experience serving on the House Financial Services Committee of the U.S. Congress for more than 10 years, city staff has done an exemplary job.

“I have witnessed many cities go to the bond market throughout the years,” she said. “I can tell you with certainty that Oakland’s team is remarkable, and our residents should be proud of their reputation, their competence, and their deep knowledge of this very sophisticated market.”

Looking ahead to the final sale of the bonds, according to the city press statement, pricing marks the point at which the City and investors locked in the final dollar amounts, interest rates, and other key terms of the bond sale. This stage is commonly referred to as the sale date. At pricing, no funds are exchanged. The actual delivery of bonds and receipt of monies occurs at closing, which is scheduled within the next two weeks.

Capital projects receiving this funding will proceed on individual timelines based on their individual conditions and needs. At the time of closing, funding will be immediately available to those projects.