Activism

Expect The Worst? Political Scientists Have a Pessimism Bias, Study Finds

The research, co-authored by UC Berkeley political scientist Andrew T. Little, offers a possible solution: an approach that aggregates experts’ predictions, finds the middle ground, and then reduces the influence of pessimism, leading to the possibility of “remarkably accurate predictions.”

Published

1 year ago

January 6, 2025

Oakland Post

Fears of unknown political outcomes. iStock image.

Political experts surveyed recently were prone to pessimism — and were often wrong, says a study co-authored at UC Berkeley. Still, when their predictions were averaged out, they were ‘remarkably accurate’

By Edward Lempinen, UC Berkeley News

The past decade has seen historic challenges for U.S. democracy and an intense focus by scholars on events that seem to signal democratic decline. But new research released two weeks ago finds that a bias toward pessimism among U.S. political scientists often leads to inaccurate predictions about the future threats to democracy.

The study was released by Bright Line Watch, a consortium of political scientists who focus on issues related to the health of U.S. democracy. It offers provocative insight into political scientists’ predictions for the months ahead, including some that would be seen as alarming risks for democracy.

According to an analysis that Little distilled from a Bright Line Watch survey done after the November election, political scientists generally agreed that incoming Republican President Donald Trump is highly likely to pardon MAGA forces imprisoned for roles in the Jan. 6, 2021 uprising that sought to block the peaceful transfer of power from Trump to Democrat Joe Biden.

The research concluded that it’s less likely, but still probable, that Trump will pardon himself from a series of federal criminal convictions and investigations, and that his allies will open an investigation of Biden.

In understanding the future course of U.S. politics, Little said in an interview, it’s important to listen to the consensus of expert political scientists rather than to individual experts who, sometimes, become media figures based on their dire predictions.

“If we’re worried about being excessively pessimistic,” he explained, “and if we don’t want to conclude that every possible bad thing is going to happen, then we should make sure that we’re mainly worrying about things where there is wider consensus (among political scientists).”

Believe the Consensus, Doubt the Outliers

For example, the raw data from hundreds of survey responses studied by Little and Bright Line researchers showed that more than half of the political scientists also expected Trump to form a board that would explore the removal of generals; deport millions of immigrants; and initiate a mass firing of civil service government employees.

But once the researchers aggregated the scholars’ opinions, determined the average of their expectations and controlled for their pessimism bias, the consensus was that the likelihood of those developments falls well below 50%.

Bright Line Watch, founded in 2016, is based at the Chicago Center on Democracy and is collaboratively run by political scientists at the University of Chicago, Dartmouth College, the University of Michigan and the University of Rochester in New York.

The research collaboration between Little and the Bright Line Watch scholars sprang from a collegial disagreement that emerged last January in the pages of the journal Political Science and Politics.

Little and Anne Meng, a political scientist at the University of Virginia, authored a research paper in that issue positing that there is little empirical, data-based evidence of global democratic decline in the past decade.

At the request of the journal editors, scholars at Bright Line Watch submitted a study to counter the argument made by Meng and Little.

But in subsequent weeks, the two teams came together and, in the study released on Dec. 17, found agreement that raw opinion on the state of democracy skews toward pessimism among the political scientists who have participated in the surveys run by Bright Line Watch.

A Stark Measure of Pessimism (and Error)

Surveys conducted during election seasons in 2020, 2022 and 2024 asked political scientists to provide their forecasts on dozens of scenarios that would be, without doubt, harmful for democracy.

The raw data in the new study showed a high level of inaccuracy in the forecasts: While the political scientists, on average, found a 45% likelihood of the negative events happening, fewer than 25% actually came to pass.

Before last month’s election, Bright Line Watch asked the political scientists to assess dozens of possibilities that seemed to be ripped from the headlines. Would foreign hackers cripple voting systems? Would Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, declare victory before the winner was called by the news media? Would Trump incite political violence again?

Altogether, the political scientists predicted a 44% probability for the list of negative events — but only 10% actually happened.

In the interview, Little defended the focus on possible negative developments by political scientists and others. It’s “very important” to be aware of the potential for harmful developments, he said.

But the focus on worst-case scenarios can also be distracting and destabilizing. The question, then, is why political scientists might develop a bias for pessimism.

To some extent, Little said, it may be a matter of expertise. The data show that scholars who specialize in American politics tend to be the least pessimistic — and the most accurate — forecasters. Political scientists with expertise in international relations, political theory or other areas tend to be more pessimistic and less reliable.

Little offered several other possible explanations. For example, he said, when scholars focus on one narrow area, like threats to democracy, they might see the potential threats with a heightened urgency. Their worry might shape the way they see the wider political world.

“People who study authoritarian politics are probably drawn to that because they think it’s an important problem, and they think it’s a problem that we need to address,” he explained. “If you spend a lot of your time and effort focusing on bad scenarios that might happen, you might end up thinking they’re more likely than they really are.”

And occasionally, he said, scholars may find that raising alarms about imminent dangers to democracy leads to more media invitations.

The Battle for Scholars’ Public Credibility

For the interwoven fields of political science and journalism — and for the wider health of democracy — accuracy is essential. That’s the value of the analytical system described by the authors of the new study. If researchers can find the expert consensus on complex issues and tone down unwarranted alarm, understanding should improve, and democracy should operate more efficiently.

Still, Little cautioned, it would be a mistake to discount or discard the insights offered by expert political scientists.

“You don’t want to say, ‘I’m just going to ignore the experts,’” he advised. “This research shows that that would be a very bad idea. Once you do the adjustments, the experts are very informed, and you can learn a lot from what they say.

Oakland Post

Posts by Oakland Post

Up Next

Port of Oakland to Host January Meeting for Interfaith Council of Alameda County

Don't Miss

UC Berkeley’s 2024 Winter Commencement: A Day of Reflection, Celebration and Advice

Oakland Post

Click to comment

Activism

On the Frontlines of Hate: NAACP Links Victims to Critical Support

The NAACP CA/HI has a long and well-established record of supporting victims of discrimination and hate crimes — providing critical referrals and, when necessary, direct assistance through legal advocacy and other forms of support. Beyond responding to incidents, the organization continues to advocate on broader civil rights issues, including voting rights and legal protections. It has also worked to counter efforts at the state and federal levels that could weaken the voting power of communities of color.

Published

1 week ago

May 1, 2026

Oakland Post

NAACP members at a recent advocacy day in Sacramento urging lawmakers to protect voting rights. Photo courtesy of California Black Media.

By Joe Kocurek
California Black Media

The California/Hawaii State Conference of the NAACP (CA/HI NAACP) has expanded its efforts to respond to rising hate incidents and civil rights complaints across California, supported in part by funding from California’s Stop the Hate Program

Through that grant, NAACP CA/HI has strengthened its ability to connect individuals experiencing hate or discrimination with critical resources. This includes referring those who file complaints to the CA vs Hate hotline, a statewide, non-emergency hate crime and incident reporting hotline and online portal created to help counter a more than 50% increase in reported hate crimes in California between 2020 and 2024. The system helps ensure incidents are documented, and victims are guided toward appropriate support.

LaJuana Bivens says the work of NAACP is as urgent as ever. Photo by Regina Wilson, California Black Media.

LaJuana Bivens, who has served in a number of roles within the NAACP, said California has seen an increase in civil rights violations and hate-related incidents.

“We have 52 branches, and they are constantly receiving complaints,” she said. “So, without the Stop the Hate, we would not be able to refer those cases up to attorneys at the state level. A lot of the people would not have had an opportunity to be heard.”

Carmen-Nicole Cox helps survivors of hate with their legal options. Photo courtesy of Carmen-Nicole Cox.

Carmen-Nicole Cox, an attorney who works with NAACP CA/HI – as a part of California’s Stop the Hate Program – provides legal consultation to victims of hate incidents and discrimination through her legal practice, the Cox Firm for Law and Policy.

She said the complaints she receives span a wide range of issues.

“People are having home builders and landlords refusing to provide repairs, a student was denied promotion in an academic program, and targeted scrutiny at work,” she said. “It’s typically employment; it’s housing; it’s education.

“We’ll meet and they’ll share their experiences,” she said. “And then I make assessments about possible legal claims.”

According to the California Civil Rights Department (CRD), nearly 1,200 reports of hate against minority groups were submitted in 2024 through the CA vs Hate hotline and online portal for non-emergency incidents.

While the California/Hawaii State Conference of the NAACP, which has tens of thousands of members, does not directly investigate hate incidents or crimes, it plays a key role in connecting victims to the state’s reporting systems and support services.

Beyond responding to incidents, the organization continues to advocate on broader civil rights issues, including voting rights and legal protections. It has also worked to counter efforts at the state and federal levels that could weaken the voting power of communities of color.

Bivens recently traveled to Sacramento to speak with state lawmakers about voting rights during an advocacy day event hosted by the organization.

“It’s just so hard for communities of color to be up to date because of all of the confusing information coming from the federal level,” she said. “I love our great state of California because here it is possible to vote by mail and to vote early.

“And I’m seeing that trying to be eroded. So, I’m here to urge continued support for vote by mail and early voting.”

When Texas moved to redraw congressional districts in ways critics said would dilute minority voting strength, NAACP CA/HI supported the passage of Proposition 50 in California. The organization also intervened in United States v. Shirley Weber, where federal officials sought access to unredacted California voter records, including Social Security numbers, raising concerns about misuse and voter intimidation.

Cultivating the advocacy and leaderships of young people is central to NAACP’s mission to fight racism and dismantle inequality. Photo courtesy of California Black Media.

A federal district court dismissed that case in January 2026.

The organization’s current work builds on a long history of civil rights advocacy. Today, Bivens says, the organization’s mission remains as urgent as ever.

“We are the oldest, boldest, most feared Civil Rights organization,” Bivens said. “What we do every day is fight for better housing, education, economic development and political inclusion. We take it on because there are just so many people who need that support.

“You would be amazed that our phones ring every single day.”

Get Support After Hate:

California vs Hate is a non-emergency, multilingual hotline and online portal offering confidential support for hate crimes and incidents. Victims and witnesses can get help anonymously by calling 833-8-NO-HATE (833-866-4283), Monday to Friday, 9 a.m.–6 p.m. PT, or online at any time. Anonymous. Confidential. No Police. No ICE.

This story was produced in partnership with CA vs Hate. Join them for the first-ever CA Civil Rights Summit on May 11. More information at www.cavshate.org/summit.

https://youtu.be/_k7UVhI-sN8

Oakland Post

Posts by Oakland Post

Activism

Up to the Job: How San Francisco’s PRC Is Providing Work Opportunities That Turn Into Lasting Stability

Each year, PRC serves more than 5,000 clients through a wide range of programs. These include housing navigation, legal advocacy to ensure access to health and public benefits, supportive housing, job and life-skills training, and residential treatment programs.

Published

2 weeks ago

April 26, 2026

Oakland Post

Black Leadership Council (BLC) Advocacy Day in Sacramento. BLC works to advance meaningful change through policy engagement to unlock the full potential of Black and low-income communities. Photo courtesy of PRC.

By Joe Kocurek, California Black Media

Seville Christian arrived in San Francisco in the 1990s from Kansas City, Mo., a transgender woman coming from a time and place still hostile to who she was.

San Francisco offered a deeper LGBTQ+ history and a more visible community of people like her, but even in a city known for acceptance, building a stable life from scratch was no small task.

After arriving in the city, she turned to Positive Resource Center (PRC) looking for work — and for a foothold — in a new place.

“PRC gave me my first job,” Christian said. “A simple gig — passing out magazines at the San Francisco Pride Parade.”

That first opportunity marked the beginning of a decades-long relationship with PRC, one that has seen Christian grow from client to valued employee, and eventually to policy fellow.

“Today, I’ve been with PRC for 27 years, going on 28,” she said.

Seville Christian’s decades-long relationship with PRC includes as a client, fellow and beloved employee. Photo courtesy of PRC.

Helping people access employment and build sustainable careers has been a cornerstone of PRC’s mission since its inception nearly four decades ago. In its most recent annual impact report, PRC served 443 clients through workforce development services, including career counseling, educational programs, hands-on training, and job search assistance. The average wage earned by PRC clients is $26.48 per hour — approximately 38% above San Francisco’s minimum wage.

To advance this work, organizations like PRC have benefited from funding through California’s Stop the Hate Program, which provides direct support to community-based organizations leading anti-hate initiatives.

Christian’s path was not without challenges. During some rocky years, she experienced periods of housing instability and struggled with addiction. Through PRC, she enrolled in a life-skills program that emphasized using her own lived experience as a means of helping others. The program helped set her on a path toward completing an associate’s degree and ultimately launching a career in case management.

“Today, whether someone is new to the city or has lived here their whole life, I know how to help them navigate to where they need to be,” Christian said.

Members of PRC’s Black Leadership Council meet with a lawmaker in Sacramento. Photo courtesy of PRC.

While PRC was founded to serve people living with HIV, its mission has expanded over the decades to meet the needs of people with disabilities, individuals experiencing homelessness, and those facing mental health and substance use challenges.

According to PRC’s Chief of Public Policy and Public Affairs, Tasha Henneman, some of the organization’s earliest programs remain as vital today as they were at the start.

“Our emergency financial assistance program helped more than 1,200 people this year pay rent, cover medical bills, and keep the lights on,” Henneman said. “And over 1,400 people reached out for legal advocacy, resulting in more than $2.5 million in retroactive benefits unlocked.”

Beyond direct services, PRC is deeply committed to community empowerment and policy change. Programs such as the Black Leadership Council support community leaders in advocating for systemic reform, while the Black Trans Initiative focuses on addressing the unique challenges faced by Black transgender individuals.

A recent study from the Williams Institute highlighted findings that 71% of transgender homicide victims in the U.S. between 2010 and 2021 were Black and that nearly a third of the transgender homicides during that period were confirmed or suspected hate crimes.

PRC’s direct and indirect services can be a lifeline for people experiencing hate and are an example of the resources people can get connected with through the state’s CA vs Hate hotline.

PRC is now also producing a film project that centers the lived experiences of Black trans clients, including individuals like Christian.

PRC welcomed guests to their annual Open House in April, an evening dedicated to connection, reflection, and learning more about the programs and people working every day to support San Franciscans experiencing housing instability, unemployment, and behavioral health challenges. Photo courtesy of PRC.

“Our film highlights the health journeys and lived experiences of some of PRC’s Black trans clients,” Henneman said. “Our goal is to give voice, visibility, and agency to the participants — and to bring their stories, both harrowing and inspirational, to policymakers and the broader public.”

The film, expected to be released later this year, is directed by Yule Caise, with assistant director Zarina Codes, a Black transgender San Francisco resident.

Today, Christian continues her relationship with PRC as an ambassador, reflecting on a journey that began with a single job opportunity and grew into a lifelong commitment to service.

“Sometimes I’ll be riding the bus or standing in a grocery store, and someone will come up to me from a women’s shelter,” she said. “They’ll say, ‘Oh, Miss Seville, I just want to thank you. You really helped me with what I was dealing with.’”

She paused, smiling.

“And in those moments,” Christian said, “I think to myself, “Well!.”

A single word that sums up pride in a journey to find the best in herself.

Get Support After Hate:

This story was produced in partnership with CA vs Hate. Join them for the first-ever CA Civil Rights Summit on May 11, 2026. More information at www.cavshate.org/summit.