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School Discipline Can Be Predicted, New Research Says. Is It Preventable?

Rates of school discipline fluctuate widely and predictably throughout a school year and increase significantly faster for Black students than for their white counterparts, University of California, Berkeley, researchers have found. A new study published today in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences documents for the first time the “dynamic” nature of student discipline during an academic year.

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Daily discipline rates in middle schools fluctuate widely throughout the school year, researchers say, with disparities worsening for Black students. Graphic courtesy UC Berkeley.
Daily discipline rates in middle schools fluctuate widely throughout the school year, researchers say, with disparities worsening for Black students. Graphic courtesy UC Berkeley.

By Jason Pohl

Rates of school discipline fluctuate widely and predictably throughout a school year and increase significantly faster for Black students than for their white counterparts, University of California, Berkeley, researchers have found.

A new study published today in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences documents for the first time the “dynamic” nature of student discipline during an academic year. Daily rates of punishment across all schools in the study ratchet up in the weeks before Thanksgiving break, decline immediately before major vacations and increase rapidly again when classes resume.

Schools with a high degree of racial disparity regarding discipline referrals or suspensions early in the year see discipline rates for Black students increase even faster as the semester continues, researchers found. By November, the Black student discipline rate is 10 times higher than at the beginning of the year. Compared to white students, it’s 50 times higher.

“This work is a game-changer,” said Jason Okonofua, assistant professor of psychology at UC Berkeley, and the study’s principal investigator. “We can predict year-long suspension rates in just the first 21 days of school. That’s information that we needed to know. And now we do.”

Okonofua and his colleagues used improved daily discipline-tracking technology to study the snapshots of middle school punishments. Going forward, the granular information they gleaned can help educators keep tabs on escalating school tension. It can even help teachers and school officials ward off potential discipline-causing incidents, much like they modify a lesson plan to overcome a learning gap in the classroom.

“The more information you have, the better decisions you can make,” Okonofua said. “If principals or teachers know by Halloween in any given year these students are facing this very heightened risk of being kicked out of school, or in which schools these students face the highest risk, we can get in there and do something about it, as opposed to letting it fester.

“Because the data shows, it would.”

Long the focus of federal inquiries, policy debate and scholarly interest, school discipline disparities have been well-documented nationwide. Recent research has shown that high school students who are suspended are more than twice as likely to be charged or convicted of a crime and incarcerated as young adults.

Brief online coursework for teachers can even increase empathy and reduce suspensions. Yet, the debate is increasing about whether school officials should be quicker to kick students out of class.

While cycles of school tension might seem intuitive, the focus historically has not been on measuring punishment rates in real-time or introducing interventions before incidents occur.

Instead, districts collect data on student discipline and produce year-end reports for state and federal regulators to examine how discipline varies among schools, which ones are more punitive and where to target interventions. While that “static” data provides a summary of what’s gone on throughout the year, it fails to capture the day-to-day realities at school.

To understand this more “dynamic nature” of student discipline, Okonofua and his colleagues assembled four years of data about the daily disciplinary experiences of 46,964 students across 61 middle schools in one of the 10 largest school districts in the country.

The district was located in a southern U.S. state, and, like an increasing number of organizations, it had implemented a more sophisticated discipline data tracking system.

The results — especially the disparities — were immediately startling.

“It is incredibly important, useful and valuable to know we should do a specific type of intervention at a specific point in the year based on the real-time data. That’s where we’re going to get the biggest bang for our buck,” Okonofua said. “If we can be more cost-efficient, everybody wins.”

Okonofua’s co-authors — Sean Darling-­Hammond of UCLA, Michael Ruiz of UC Berkeley and Jennifer L. Eberhardt of Stanford University — also published a short video that uses beeping tones to illustrate discipline disparities between Black and white students. The anxiety-inducing tones are meant to simulate how stressful school can be when students are witnessing increasing discipline.

Okonofua likened school discipline tracking tools to an athlete’s heart rate monitor at the gym. Rather than simply estimating how hard a workout was, real-time data can be more useful.

“The more data we have, the more we know,” Okonofua said. “And the more we know, the more we can do.”

The study shows how important it is for districts to create systems for teachers to regularly monitor school discipline, he said. Policy leaders should likewise take note as they write policies and dedicate funding meant to curb discipline, alleviate disparities and minimize disruption.

“It’s important to think about each data point. That’s a whole story,” said Okonofua, reflecting on discipline’s lasting effects on both the student in trouble and classmates witnessing the punishment. “I hope we can do as much as possible going forward to just keep in mind that each one of these data points is a whole life.”

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Black History

Doulas Are Helping Black California Moms Navigate Pregnancy–Even as High Mortality Rates Persist

In California, Black women experience the highest pregnancy-related mortality rate — about four times greater than other women, according to statistics. From 2021 to 2023, the leading causes of pregnancy-related deaths included cardiovascular disease, COVID-19, hemorrhage, sepsis, amniotic fluid embolism, and pulmonary embolism.

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Long Beach resident Cassandra Carter approached the birth of her daughter, Nyomi (pictured), last November with anxiety after losing twins. She is pictured here with her husband.

After losing twins, Long Beach resident Cassandra Carter approached the birth of her daughter, Nyomi, last November with anxiety. She wanted support for herself and her husband, Adewole, that extended beyond routine medical care. 

“Getting pregnant as a Black woman, I wanted a team around me that made me feel safe,” she said. “I know all about the mishaps that Black women experience.”  

Carter, a therapist and self-described hippie, hired Yvette Perry, a doula and co-founder of Divine Birthing Services LLC in Lancaster. Perry helped Cassandra craft a detailed birth plan. 

“I was worried about postpartum depression. Mrs. Yvette knows a lot about how postpartum affects men as well,” Carter explained. 

Perry was present the day Nyomi was born. She held the baby when Carter or her husband needed a moment and even set up candles in the birthing suite.  

“Whatever I needed for my comfort, she was there,” Carter said of Perry. “She was there as an advocate and voice. I had a really serene birthing experience because I had someone extra who wasn’t tied to me as my family.”  

Perry, a doula for nearly six years, said preexisting conditions, poor communication and dismissive hospital care heighten health risks for Black mothers. 

“Sometimes, Black mommies are not being heard. They don’t know they have rights. They don’t know they can say, ‘no,’” Perry explained. “Doulas empower them. We are there to educate them.” 

Perry’s concerns reflect a broader public health crisis. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s 2024 maternal mortality report, non-Hispanic Black women in the U.S. died from pregnancy-related causes at a rate of 44.8 deaths per 100,000 live births. 

In California, Black women experience the highest pregnancy-related mortality rate — about four times greater than other women, according to statistics. From 2021 to 2023, the leading causes of pregnancy-related deaths included cardiovascular disease, COVID-19, hemorrhage, sepsis, amniotic fluid embolism, and pulmonary embolism. 

The Centering Black Mothers in California report found that structural racism — including barriers to high-quality health care, and chronic stress— disproportionately harms Black women. 

In a statement to California Black Media (CBM), the California Department of Public Health (CDPH) said maternal mortality disparities stem from multiple factors. The department said addressing structural racism, listening to Black women’s experiences and reducing provider bias are key to closing the gap. 

California began covering doula care as a Medi-Cal benefit in 2023, providing eligible patients with support during pregnancy, childbirth and the postpartum period, according to CDPH.  

Whitney Dotson of Inglewood wanted an expert on pregnancy, labor, and delivery to guide her and her husband, Anthony, through the birth of their son, Anthony III. So, she hired Perry for doula support. 

“It’s always more comfortable when you can have a second opinion,” she said. “Knowing she was better versed in what the options were, made me more comfortable.” 

Dotson, 39, had a healthy pregnancy but faced recommendations common for expectant mothers over 35. Her doctor advised inducing labor at 39 weeks, but she hoped to carry to full term. 

“I wasn’t comfortable with that,” she admitted. 

Perry provided Dotson with information about induction guidelines and alternatives, helping her understand her options and communicate her preferences.  

Then, Dotson returned to her doctor. 

“I said, ‘I don’t want to — and this is why,’” she recalled. “He agreed and pushed the induction date back a week.” 

Perry also advised Anthony on how he could support his wife during and after the pregnancy and during Anthony III’s birth. She also reminded Dotson to change birthing positions — from her back to her hands and knees.  

Before Saveneh Martinez became a doula with Fierce Advocates in Contra Costa County, she was a new mom, uneducated on aspects of birth, which led to her first child, Colton, being placed in a Neonatal Intensive Care Unit. 

“I didn’t know my choices,” she said.   

Martinez called it “lifesaving” for expecting moms to have a doula.  

“It should be a medical right,” she said.  

California Perinatal Quality Care Collaborative (CPQCC) Senior Associate Medical Director Kimberly D. Gregory said research suggests that doulas decrease the pre-term birth rate and the likelihood of a C-section.  

“Having a doula is a proactive thing to do,” she said.  

Efforts are being made across the state to reduce maternal deaths.  

CDPH’s Title V Action Plan aims to reduce pregnancy-related deaths among Black birthing mothers from 49.7 to 42.3 per 100,000 live births by 2030 through improvements in patient-centered care, expanding community-based perinatal teams, and addressing the social factors that contribute to poor maternal health outcomes. 

CDPH’s Black Infant Health (BIH) Program and Perinatal Equity Initiative (PEI) have already begun to make headway.  

“BIH’s prenatal group model improves key intermediate outcomes for participants, including increased social support and empowerment, better stress management, reduced depressive symptoms and gains in health knowledge and behaviors such as safe sleep practices and reduced smoking,” the CDPH told CBM.  

“PEI’s early implementation results show progress across several participant-reported areas, such as improved birth experiences, breastfeeding initiation, and coparenting skills among fathers and partners,” the CDPH statement continued.  

Gregory said the California Pregnancy Associated Review Committee examines maternal deaths and develops guidelines to help hospitals improve care. One of its main recommendations focuses on how hospitals respond to hemorrhaging, a leading cause of pregnancy-related deaths. 

Gregory said CMQCC also created standard clinic care practices for cardiovascular disease and sepsis, two more drivers of maternal mortality, but widespread implementation across the state is pending.  

She noted that although there are 800 maternal deaths a year in the U.S., there are also 3.6 million births.  

“Most people will do well,” she said. “But you should know about complications like preterm birth. You should know about complications like diabetes, preeclampsia and postpartum depression.” 

Martinez said doulas help to make birthing the transformative experience that it is, instead of a routine clinical transaction. 

“Being able to feel heard, seen, safe, respected, and just being able to create spaces for them to be held as well,” she said.  

Supported by the California Health Care Foundation (CHCF), which works to ensure that people have access to the care they need, when they need it, at a price they can afford. Visit www.chcf.org to learn more.

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Business

Newsom Signs Addictive Social Media Law to Protect Kids

Newsom said California’s approach focuses on the features that can encourage excessive social media use rather than taking the broader step of banning teenagers from the platforms altogether. He contrasted the measure with restrictions adopted in Australia and Malaysia that prevent teenagers from accessing social media or creating accounts.

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Gov. Gavin Newsom has signed a new California law targeting addictive social media features that can keep children scrolling, giving the state new authority to restrict how platforms engage young users.

AB 1709, authored by Assemblymember Josh Lowenthal (D-Long Beach) prohibits social media companies from giving children under 16 access to personalized feeds, including “For You” pages, as well as other features designed to maximize screen time, such as infinite scrolling and video autoplay.

The law does not prevent children under 16 from using social media. Instead, platforms must deactivate the covered features for those users.

“This is about actually addressing the problem, the scrolling, the algorithms,” Newsom said Sept. 10 during a bill-signing event in the San Francisco Bay Area.

Newsom said California’s approach focuses on the features that can encourage excessive social media use rather than taking the broader step of banning teenagers from the platforms altogether. He contrasted the measure with restrictions adopted in Australia and Malaysia that prevent teenagers from accessing social media or creating accounts. 

The law comes amid growing concerns about the impact of social media on children’s mental health and well-being. California lawmakers have increasingly focused on the design and business practices of technology platforms as part of efforts to protect young users.

AB 1709 is one of 13 youth online safety and privacy laws Newsom signed Sept.10. The package also includes measures regulating AI chatbots, increasing potential penalties for technology companies and establishing additional protections for children using digital services.

Lowenthal said the new rules represent a shift toward greater accountability for technology companies.

“We want oversight. We want accountability. We’re done asking nicely, and we’re demanding that there is a duty of care across these platforms — a duty that puts the wellness of our children ahead of profits,” Lowenthal said.

The law builds on California’s broader effort to regulate children’s online experiences. A separate law, AB 1043, will require users to provide their birth dates when setting up new phones or laptops beginning in January, with device manufacturers required to share users’ ages with apps.

Some youth online safety advocates have supported AB 1709 as a more targeted alternative to outright social media bans. Others have warned that the restrictions could make it harder for some LGBTQ+ young people to find support online and questioned how effectively age requirements can be enforced.

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Community

Asm. Isaac Bryan’s Bill Banning California Police From ICE Side Jobs Reaches Newsom’s Desk

The legislation comes as ICE ramps up efforts to recruit law enforcement personnel under the Trump administration. Bryan said the federal agency is offering financial incentives to attract officers, raising concerns about the impact on local law enforcement agencies and the communities they serve.

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Assemblymember Isaac Bryan (D-Ladera Heights)

A bill by California Assemblymember Isaac Bryan (D-Ladera Heights) that would prevent state and local police officers from taking second jobs with federal immigration enforcement agencies is headed to Gov. Gavin Newsom after clearing the Legislature.

AB 1537 would bar California peace officers from accepting secondary employment related to immigration enforcement, including work with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). The measure also would require officers to report offers for immigration enforcement-related outside employment to their employing agencies.

The legislation comes as ICE ramps up efforts to recruit law enforcement personnel under the Trump administration. Bryan said the federal agency is offering financial incentives to attract officers, raising concerns about the impact on local law enforcement agencies and the communities they serve.

“They are trying to recruit our law enforcement personnel. They are offering these insane bonuses,” Bryan said.

Bryan said he is particularly concerned about efforts to recruit experienced law enforcement personnel while questions have been raised about ICE’s hiring standards.

“They want better skilled, better trained folks because their untrained and uneducated goons go through a very low threshold,” Bryan added.

The legislation would create consequences for California officers who violate its restrictions. Officers who fail to report offers of secondary employment related to immigration enforcement could face decertification as peace officers in California.

Bryan has framed the bill as a measure to establish boundaries between local law enforcement and federal immigration enforcement, particularly as immigration enforcement has become a major source of conflict between the Trump administration and California.

“This is a rogue agency that is harming the American people,” said Bryan. “It should be abolished, but in the meantime, we’ve got to do everything we can to put guardrails around our communities and protect our neighbors.”

AB 1537 previously received approval from the Assembly Public Safety Committee in March before advancing through the Legislature. The bill now awaits Newsom’s decision. The Governor can sign it into law, veto it or allow it to become law without his signature.

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