Business

The Bull Market Turns 6 After Rising from Financial Crisis

Published

11 years ago

March 9, 2015

In this March 4, 2015 photo, people pose with the Charging Bull sculpture, by artist Arturo Di Modica, in New York’s Financial District. Six years after the Standard & Poor’s 500 index bottomed out at 676.53 on March 9, 2009, investors are enjoying one of the longest bull markets since the 1940s. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)

Steve Rothwell, ASSOCIATED PRESS

NEW YORK (AP) — In 2009 the stock market was filled with panic.

The housing market had collapsed. Lehman Brothers had gone under and General Motors was on the verge of bankruptcy reorganization. The U.S. was in a deep recession, and stocks had plunged 57 percent from their high in October 2007.

Fast forward six years, and investors are enjoying one of the longest bull markets since the 1940s.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 index has more than tripled since bottoming out at 676.53 on March 9, 2009. The bull has pushed through a U.S. debt crisis, an escalating conflict in the Middle East, renewed tensions with Russia over Ukraine and Europe’s stagnating economy.

So has this bull run its course? Most market strategists haven’t yet seen the signs that typically accompany a market peak. Investors are yet to become rash, or overconfident.

“Bull markets end not because they grow old. They end because some excesses build,” says Stephen Freedman, head of cross-asset strategy at UBS Wealth Management.

Here are questions and answers about the run-up in stocks:
Q: WHY DO STOCKS KEEP RISING?

A: It’s a powerful combination of higher corporate profits and a growing economy.

The main driver is company earnings. Companies slashed costs in response to the Great Recession that began in December 2007. That helped boost profit margins when demand began to recover. As a result, earnings per share have risen consistently since the end of the recession in 2009. Companies in the S&P 500 are forecast to generate record earnings of $119.35 per share this year, nearly double what they earned in 2009.

Hiring is picking up and costs are down, and that means Americans are more confident about the economy than at any time since the recession. Unemployment has fallen to 5.5 percent from a peak of 10 percent in 2009. A plunge in the price of oil has pushed down gas prices and put more money in Americans’ pockets. Most economists forecast growth of more than 3 percent this year.

As investors become more confident about growth, they’re willing to pay more for stocks. The average price-to-earnings ratio for an S&P 500 company, which measures how much investors are willing to pay for every dollar in earnings, stands at 17.2. Six years ago, it was 11.
Q: WHAT ROLE HAS THE FEDERAL RESERVE PLAYED?

The Federal Reserve has held its main lending rate close to zero since 2008. It has bought trillions of dollars in bonds to help hold down long-term interest rates. By cutting rates, policymakers have encouraged businesses and consumers to borrow and spend.

The historically low interest rates in the bond market have also made stocks look more attractive in comparison.

The average dividend yield, a measure of a company’s stock price compared to the dividend it pays, is 2.06 percent for S&P 500 stocks. The yield on the ultra-safe 10-year Treasury note is 2.24 percent.

“Essentially, by investing in the S&P, you’re getting the same yield as you would on a Treasury,” says Marc Pinto a portfolio manager at Janus. “But you have … the upside of stocks moving higher as companies grow their earnings.”

Low rates will likely help lift stocks for some time to come. While investors say there is a chance that the Fed may raise rates as soon as June, few expect a rapid series of rate hikes.
Q: HOW DOES THIS RUN COMPARE WITH PREVIOUS BULL MARKETS?

A: There have been 12 bull markets since the end of World War II, with the average run lasting 58 months, according to S&P Capital IQ. At 72 months, the current streak is the fourth longest in that period. While this run could be described as middle-aged, it is still a few years short of the longest streak, which started in 1990 and stretched 113 months into 2000.
Q: IF YOU INVESTED $10,000 AT THE BOTTON, HOW MUCH WOULD YOU HAVE MADE?

A: The S&P 500 has returned 253 percent since March 9, 2009. That means an investment of $10,000 would now be worth $25,262. Investing the same amount in the Dow Jones industrial average over the same time would have turned $10,000 into $22,428.
Q: HOW LONG CAN THIS BULL MARKET CONTINUE?

A: All bull markets must end. That’s simply the nature of financial markets. However, few analysts are calling the end of this one just yet.

The U.S. economy is continuing to strengthen and inflation remains tame. And while the Fed has ended its bond-buying program, other global central banks, like the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan, are still providing stimulus to their economies.

“I don’t anticipate that stocks will face any challenges in the near-term,” says Michael Arone, chief investment strategist for State Street Global Advisors. “If there were some type of a recession, or a slowdown in the U.S., that would hurt for sure … but I don’t see that on the horizon.”

Also, many of the excesses that accompany bull-market peaks haven’t surfaced, says UBS Wealth Management’s Freedman. Think of the housing boom that preceded the bust that began in 2007, or the dot-com mania of 1999 and early 2000.

“Because the recovery has been so sluggish, nobody has had time to go overboard with the type of behavior that’s come back to haunt the markets,” he says.
Q: WHAT KILLS BULL MARKETS?

A: Typically, it’s a recession. Four of the five bull markets since 1970 ended as investors got spooked by a recession, or the anticipation of one.

Bank of America analysts say that the most likely threat to the bull market would be rising inflation. That could cause a sell-off in bonds, sending shock waves throughout financial markets.

Another threat is a slump in earnings. That could happen if the surging dollar, already at a 12-year high against the euro, grows even stronger, making U.S. goods more expensive to customers overseas and translating into fewer dollars to corporate bottom lines.

Some investors are planning for a sell-off.

James Abate, chief investment officer of Centre Funds, says he sees a much stronger probability of the U.S. economy falling into recession than most investors and analysts. He says the stock market’s gains are at odds with the performance of the economy. Growth remains steady, but could hardly be described as robust. That means companies will have a hard time boosting sales, ultimately undermining their earnings.

“We will not be celebrating the seventh anniversary of the current bull market,” Abate says.

Follow Steve Rothwell on Twitter @SteveRothwellAP.
Copyright 2015 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

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The Ladies of Delta Sigma Theta Hold Day of Advocacy at the Capitol in Sacramento

A member of the “Divine Nine,” Delta Sigma Theta Sorority, Inc., was founded on Jan. 13, 1913, at Howard University in Washington, D.C. The organization was established by 22 women who sought to shift the group’s focus from social activities to public service, academic excellence, and social activism.

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Sen. Laura Richardson (D-San Pedro) presents a Senate resolution to the Delta Theta Sigma Sorority Farwest Region at the State Capitol on May 4. Photo courtesy of the Senate Rules Committee.

By Antonio Ray Harvey, California Black Media

On May 4, members of the Farwest Region of Delta Sigma Theta Sorority, Inc., convened at the California State Capitol for the organization’s 23rd annual Delta Days in Sacramento.

The two-day advocacy event brings together chapters from across California to engage directly in the legislative process, connect with lawmakers, and advocate for policies impacting Black communities.

Members of the sorority were honored on the Senate floor by Sen. Laura Richardson (D-San Pedro), who is also a member of Delta Sigma Theta.

Richardson welcomed the Farwest Region during the presentation of a Senate resolution recognizing outgoing Regional Director Kimberly Usher for her leadership and service.

“In addition to the Far West Region, we are led by a fearless leader, regional director Kimberly Usher. She has now served her full term of what’s allowed,” Richardson said. “We are going to be having our regional conference, but we wanted to give it to her here, officially recognizing her service.”

The resolution was co-authored by Richardson and fellow members of the California Legislative Black Caucus (CLBC) and Delta Sigma Theta, Sen. Akilah Weber Pierson (D-San Diego) and Assemblymember Rhodesia Ransom (D-Stockton).

Usher has served in the leadership role since 2022.

“We are founded on sisterhood that is deeply rooted in scholarship, service, and social action,” said Weber Pierson, a member of the Gamma Alpha chapter of Delta Sigma Theta Sorority.

“Today, we continue a legacy of empowering communities and upholding the high cultural, intellectual, and moral standards established by our founders over a century ago,” she added.

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How Is AI Affecting California? The State Wants You to Share Your Story

The program marks the first time the state has opened the platform to all Californians. State officials said the effort is designed to give residents a direct role in discussions about how AI should be regulated and used as the technology rapidly expands across industries.

Published

1 week ago

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By Bo Tefu, California Black Media

Gov. Gavin Newsom announced May 7 that California is expanding its Engaged California digital democracy initiative statewide, inviting residents to help shape future state policies on artificial intelligence (AI) and its impact on jobs and the economy.

“We’ve got to be clear-eyed about this moment: AI is moving fast, bringing enormous opportunity, but also real risks,” Newsom said in a statement. “Californians deserve a seat at the table as we shape what’s to come.”

The initiative will roll out in two phases. Beginning immediately, Californians can sign up online to share how AI is affecting their work and communities and provide ideas for possible government action. Later this summer, a smaller group reflecting the state’s workforce demographics will participate in live discussions focused on developing policy recommendations.

State officials said the goal is to identify areas of agreement among Californians and provide policymakers with public feedback as the state develops future AI regulations and workforce strategies.

Engaged California is modeled after digital democracy programs used in Taiwan and is intended to encourage structured public discussion rather than social media-style debate. Officials described the effort as a form of “deliberative democracy” aimed at helping residents engage directly in state decision-making.

“The more Californians are engaged in the democratic process, the better able we’ll be to confront the challenges we face together,” said Nick Maduros, California Secretary of Government Operations, in a statement.

The statewide launch builds on two earlier pilot programs. One pilot gathered public input following the Los Angeles firestorms to help guide recovery efforts, while another collected ideas from state employees about improving government operations.

California has positioned itself as a national leader in AI policy and development. Since 2023, the Newsom administration has introduced initiatives focused on responsible AI use in government, cybersecurity protections, workforce training and regulations targeting risks such as deepfakes and AI-generated robocalls.

The state has also partnered with companies in Silicon Valley — including NVIDIA, Google, Adobe, IBM and Microsoft — to expand AI education and workforce training programs across California schools and universities.

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Advice

Book Review: Books for College-Bound Students

The kind of workday your Grandpa had is probably over, and you can’t count on toiling at the same place for 40 years for a pension and a gold watch. You already know that, and these books will help you decide your next step. You’ll learn what kind of worker you are, what’s stopping you from finding a job or occupation you’ll love, how to determine the purpose you envision for your future, and how to get where you need to be.

Published

1 week ago

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Book covers. Photo courtesy of Terri Schlichenmeyer.

By Terri Schlichenmeyer

Authors: Various, Copyright: c.2026, Publishers: Various, SRP: $21.00 – $29.00, Page Counts: Various

The videos and news reports were inspiring.

In them, a hesitant prospective college student became a happy, new college-bound student with the click of a key. They were accepted into the college of their dreams – so how can you get the same feeling next spring, when you’re the one with the highest of hopes?

You can start by reading these great books and sharing them with your family…

You probably already know that getting into the college of your choice is not something you do last-minute. In “The People’s Guide to College Applications: A Week-by-Week Approach to Writing, Connecting, and Getting in” (Prometheus Books, $ 21.95), Jill Constantino takes you through each step, but not in a frantic way. There’s no pressure here, just easy-to-grasp, makes-sense methods to apply for the college you want. There are reminders here, things you can’t forget and things you can, hints on asking for referrals and writing essays, and plenty of reminders to take a deep breath. Bonus: it’s also a book for parents, who may feel just as much pressure as their child does.

Okay, but let’s say that you’re an adult, a parent who’s sweating those college applications, classes, and the FAFSA for yourself, ugh! Then you’ll want to read “Student Parent: The Fight for Families, the Cost of Poverty, and the Power of College” by Nicole Lynn Lewis (Beacon Press, $26.97). an urgent call meant for nontraditional students who are also Black, Latinx, gay, Moms, or Dads.

Inside this book, you’ll find stats and stories that may already sound familiar, tales of not enough money, not enough support, not enough arms or sleep or resources. If you’re looking for a book of advice, this isn’t it, though. It’s more of a resource that you’ll want to take to your guidance counselor or any local politician.

Alright, but what if you’ve decided that college can wait? Is that okay? Look for “The Mission Generation: Reclaim Your Purpose, Rewrite Success, Rebuild Our Future” by Arun Gupta and Thomas J. Fewer (Wiley, $29.00) because – guess what? – you have many options for your future.

The kind of workday your Grandpa had is probably over, and you can’t count on toiling at the same place for 40 years for a pension and a gold watch. You already know that, and this book will help you decide your next step. You’ll learn what kind of worker you are, what’s stopping you from finding a job or occupation you’ll love, how to determine the purpose you envision for your future, and how to get where you need to be. This book isn’t just for high schoolers, but for anyone ages 16 and beyond who’s feeling restless, ready for change, or who’s thinking about some kind of purposeful retirement.

And if these aren’t the college-based or not-college-bound books you need, then be sure to ask your favorite bookseller or librarian for help on ideas, how-to’s, test prep books, or study guides. They’ll have books for you, and maybe a little inspiration, too.