Business

Why Cheaper Jet Fuel Won’t Mean Lower Airfares Anytime Soon

Published

12 years ago

January 21, 2015

In this Jan. 15, 2015 photo, a worker prepares to fuel a United Express aircraft after it arrived at Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport, in Grapevine, Texas. Airlines will save billions this year thanks to cheaper jet fuel, but they arent likely to share the bounty with passengers, not while so many flights are already full. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)

DAVID KOENIG, AP Airlines Writer

DALLAS (AP) — Airlines will save billions this year thanks to cheaper jet fuel, but they aren’t likely to share the bounty with passengers — not while so many flights are already full.

Instead, the airlines will use their windfall to pay down debt and reward shareholders.

Airline CEOs worry that oil prices could just as easily go higher. They hope consumers benefiting from cheaper gasoline will splurge on airline tickets. But the biggest reason airfares aren’t falling: Planes are plenty full at current prices.

Fuel is the biggest single expense at most airlines, and spot prices for jet fuel have tumbled by half since mid-September. If prices stay around these levels, U.S. airlines could save $20 billion this year by some estimates.

The road to fuel savings at an airline isn’t always as simple as it is for a driver at a gas station.

Airlines often buy contracts known as hedges to protect themselves against sudden upward swings in fuel prices. However, when the price of oil crashes, those contracts can lose a great deal of value. Analysts say the accounting losses will be more than offset by lower fuel prices.

For example, Delta Air Lines Inc., the nation’s third-biggest airline company, reported Tuesday that it spent $342 million less on fuel in the fourth quarter than it did a year earlier. But it reported a $712 million loss because it had to write down the value of future fuel-hedging contracts by $1.2 billion.

Airlines won’t benefit equally from cheaper fuel because some, like Delta, will suffer losses on their hedging strategy. The biggest winner could be American Airlines Group Inc., which generally does not hedge.

Airline executives also cite the volatility of oil prices — they spiked to records in 2008, collapsed, then surged again until the recent drop — as a reason not to cut fares now.

Delta CEO Richard Anderson said Tuesday that his airline expects to save $2 billion this year on fuel, even with hedging losses. He said Delta will pay down debt and reward shareholders by buying back company shares, which raises the value of the remaining stock. As for passengers, he suggested that they can shop around.

“The marketplace is incredibly competitive, and there are always differences in fares,” Anderson said.

The prospect of cheaper fuel led Moody’s Investors Service to raise its outlook for airlines this week from “stable” to “positive.” Moody’s analysts say that if crude oil is $55 per barrel all year long — it was trading for $48 on Tuesday — fuel costs at seven of the biggest U.S. airlines will fall about $20 billion in 2015 compared with last year. Even with hedging give-backs, they will come out ahead by $15 billion, Moody’s says.

Delta’s results on Tuesday are expected to be followed with strong fourth-quarter reports later this week from United and Southwest, and next week by American Airlines.

Travelers who expect airfares to drop when fuel becomes cheaper assume that airlines calculate ticket prices based on their costs.

That used to be true, says Robert Mann, a former airline executive who now consults to the industry. A decade or more ago, a financially weak airline would cut fares to sell tickets and raise desperately needed cash by filling seats that would otherwise fly empty. Not anymore.

“The industry is full at these prices,” Mann says. “You couldn’t stimulate additional revenue by cutting prices.”

Mergers have left four airline companies controlling more than 80 percent of the U.S. market. And they have been very slow to add new flights. That makes planes more crowded. U.S. airlines are filling more than 85 percent of their seats in some months — close to record levels, according to the government.

“Right now the airlines have a great balance of supply and demand, and they are using it to ratchet up fares,” says Jim Corridore, an airlines analyst for S&P Capital IQ.

By last summer, U.S. airfares had increased 5 percent in a year and 31 percent in five years, according to government figures.

Besides, Corridore says, passengers didn’t offer to pay more when fuel prices were high.

Some analysts worry that airlines will use cheaper fuel to justify adding lots of flights, which could drive down fares. So far that hasn’t happened in the U.S., although for reasons other than cheap fuel there is overcapacity on some international routes.

There is an increasingly popular view within the industry that cheaper oil might even lead to higher airfares. The theory goes that consumers who are saving money on gasoline and heating bills now have extra cash to spend on travel. Moody’s says that is one reason travel demand will grow at least 5 percent this year.

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David Koenig can be reached at http://twitter.com/airlinewriter

Oakland Post

Posts by Oakland Post

Business

How Oakland’s Courtsmith is Scaling its Business and Local Impact

OAKLAND POST — “As Courtsmith grew, scaling wasn’t just about selling more—it was about building the infrastructure to deliver consistently, with a strong supply chain and production process,” said Courtney Smith, founder of Courtsmith. “We needed the right kind of capital and partners to help us expand without losing the Oakland authenticity that made us who we are.”

Published

4 days ago

August 1, 2026

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With support from ICA Fund and JPMorganChase, founder Courtney Smith is strengthening his supply chain, creating jobs and expanding local production, and positioning the Oakland-born brand for long-term growth

When Courtney Smith founded Courtsmith in Oakland in 2014, he was building more than an athletic apparel company. A lifelong basketball enthusiast, Smith saw an opportunity to create performance wear that reflected the culture of the game—its style, community and sense of belonging.

From the beginning, Courtsmith was rooted in the idea that basketball is not just a sport, but a lifestyle and a community. The brand set out to make athletes look and feel good on and off the court while building partnerships that give athletes a stake in the products and stories they help shape.

“As Courtsmith grew, scaling wasn’t just about selling more—it was about building the infrastructure to deliver consistently, with a strong supply chain and production process,” said Courtney Smith, founder of Courtsmith. “We needed the right kind of capital and partners to help us expand without losing the Oakland authenticity that made us who we are.”

As the company grew, Smith faced a common challenge for small businesses: maintaining quality, reliability and authenticity of products while scaling—and having the resources to do so. The next move was not simply about expansion; it was about building the infrastructure to last.

That is where ICA Fund—a Bay Area impact investor, small business support organization and long-time partner to Courtsmith—came in. ICA’s relationship with Smith began in 2017 through its Growth Strategies advising program, and over time, the organization paired mentorship, technical assistance and capital to help the company grow with intention. More recently, philanthropic support from JPMorganChase helped ICA expand the range of capital products it can offer entrepreneurs like Smith, including options designed for companies that are ready to scale but may not be a fit for traditional debt products or equity investments.

“Too many great businesses stay stuck small without access to fair and flexible capital— ICA Fund’s role is to change that,” said Allison Kelly, CEO of ICA Fund. “With support from JPMorganChase, we’re able to provide founder-friendly financing alongside long-term partnership, giving entrepreneurs the tools they need to grow stronger businesses that create opportunity in their communities.”

The right kind of capital for a new stage of growth

ICA recently provided Courtsmith with a loan to help it buy a local manufacturing business, a major step toward bringing more of its production process closer to home, strengthening its supply chain, reducing costs, continuing its growth and creating local jobs.

The transaction also marked a milestone for ICA: the first time the organization approved capital for a merger-and-acquisition transaction. It reflects a broader expansion of the financing options it offers, supported by JPMorganChase’s American Dream Initiative, which aims, in part, to help power 10 million small businesses—up from seven million today—over the next several years with the capital, coaching, tools and practical policy support they need to thrive. It’s also an example of the kind of tailored support—delivered through trusted local pathways and the firm’s own relationships—that JPMorganChase provides to small businesses in the Bay Area, including our more than 295,000 small business clients.

“Small businesses are the backbone of our economy, and Courtsmith’s story shows how access to the right capital at the right time can unlock growth,” said Gwyneth Galbraith, Vice President for Global Philanthropy at JPMorganChase. “By supporting organizations like ICA Fund, we’re helping expand access to the kinds of financing and guidance entrepreneurs need to strengthen operations, create jobs and build lasting businesses across the Bay Area.”

Building with staying power

For small businesses, access to financing that fits their stage of growth can determine whether expansion is sustainable. A one-size-fits-all approach does not always work for companies with distinct cash-flow cycles, customer demand and operational needs. In Courtsmith’s case, the ICA loan gave the company a path to invest in its future while preserving the founder’s vision and control—and reflected the kind of flexible financing JPMorganChase is helping expand through its support of local community and mission-driven lenders.

Courtsmith’s trajectory reflects that momentum. The company reports that revenue grew 259% from 2021 to 2025, while its workforce expanded from four employees in 2017 to 13 in 2025, including growth in full-time roles from one to 11.

Behind those numbers is a company deepening its roots in Oakland through local partnerships, community presence and a model built to last.

“Courtsmith is about Oakland, representing the culture that raised us and creating opportunity for the next generation,” said Smith. “With ICA Fund and JPMorganChase in our corner, we can keep turning that mission into something people can see and feel in our community.”

Courtsmith’s next chapter is still being written, but the path is clearer: a founder-led brand with deeper local production capacity, a stronger supply chain, and a larger role in Oakland’s small business economy.