Business

Why Cheaper Jet Fuel Won’t Mean Lower Airfares Anytime Soon

Published

9 years ago

January 21, 2015

In this Jan. 15, 2015 photo, a worker prepares to fuel a United Express aircraft after it arrived at Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport, in Grapevine, Texas. Airlines will save billions this year thanks to cheaper jet fuel, but they arent likely to share the bounty with passengers, not while so many flights are already full. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)

DAVID KOENIG, AP Airlines Writer

DALLAS (AP) — Airlines will save billions this year thanks to cheaper jet fuel, but they aren’t likely to share the bounty with passengers — not while so many flights are already full.

Instead, the airlines will use their windfall to pay down debt and reward shareholders.

Airline CEOs worry that oil prices could just as easily go higher. They hope consumers benefiting from cheaper gasoline will splurge on airline tickets. But the biggest reason airfares aren’t falling: Planes are plenty full at current prices.

Fuel is the biggest single expense at most airlines, and spot prices for jet fuel have tumbled by half since mid-September. If prices stay around these levels, U.S. airlines could save $20 billion this year by some estimates.

The road to fuel savings at an airline isn’t always as simple as it is for a driver at a gas station.

Airlines often buy contracts known as hedges to protect themselves against sudden upward swings in fuel prices. However, when the price of oil crashes, those contracts can lose a great deal of value. Analysts say the accounting losses will be more than offset by lower fuel prices.

For example, Delta Air Lines Inc., the nation’s third-biggest airline company, reported Tuesday that it spent $342 million less on fuel in the fourth quarter than it did a year earlier. But it reported a $712 million loss because it had to write down the value of future fuel-hedging contracts by $1.2 billion.

Airlines won’t benefit equally from cheaper fuel because some, like Delta, will suffer losses on their hedging strategy. The biggest winner could be American Airlines Group Inc., which generally does not hedge.

Airline executives also cite the volatility of oil prices — they spiked to records in 2008, collapsed, then surged again until the recent drop — as a reason not to cut fares now.

Delta CEO Richard Anderson said Tuesday that his airline expects to save $2 billion this year on fuel, even with hedging losses. He said Delta will pay down debt and reward shareholders by buying back company shares, which raises the value of the remaining stock. As for passengers, he suggested that they can shop around.

“The marketplace is incredibly competitive, and there are always differences in fares,” Anderson said.

The prospect of cheaper fuel led Moody’s Investors Service to raise its outlook for airlines this week from “stable” to “positive.” Moody’s analysts say that if crude oil is $55 per barrel all year long — it was trading for $48 on Tuesday — fuel costs at seven of the biggest U.S. airlines will fall about $20 billion in 2015 compared with last year. Even with hedging give-backs, they will come out ahead by $15 billion, Moody’s says.

Delta’s results on Tuesday are expected to be followed with strong fourth-quarter reports later this week from United and Southwest, and next week by American Airlines.

Travelers who expect airfares to drop when fuel becomes cheaper assume that airlines calculate ticket prices based on their costs.

That used to be true, says Robert Mann, a former airline executive who now consults to the industry. A decade or more ago, a financially weak airline would cut fares to sell tickets and raise desperately needed cash by filling seats that would otherwise fly empty. Not anymore.

“The industry is full at these prices,” Mann says. “You couldn’t stimulate additional revenue by cutting prices.”

Mergers have left four airline companies controlling more than 80 percent of the U.S. market. And they have been very slow to add new flights. That makes planes more crowded. U.S. airlines are filling more than 85 percent of their seats in some months — close to record levels, according to the government.

“Right now the airlines have a great balance of supply and demand, and they are using it to ratchet up fares,” says Jim Corridore, an airlines analyst for S&P Capital IQ.

By last summer, U.S. airfares had increased 5 percent in a year and 31 percent in five years, according to government figures.

Besides, Corridore says, passengers didn’t offer to pay more when fuel prices were high.

Some analysts worry that airlines will use cheaper fuel to justify adding lots of flights, which could drive down fares. So far that hasn’t happened in the U.S., although for reasons other than cheap fuel there is overcapacity on some international routes.

There is an increasingly popular view within the industry that cheaper oil might even lead to higher airfares. The theory goes that consumers who are saving money on gasoline and heating bills now have extra cash to spend on travel. Moody’s says that is one reason travel demand will grow at least 5 percent this year.

___

David Koenig can be reached at http://twitter.com/airlinewriter

Oakland Post

Posts by Oakland Post

Activism

Oakland Post: Week of April 24 – 30, 2024

The printed Weekly Edition of the Oakland Post: Week of April 24 – 30, 2024

Published

1 week ago

April 26, 2024

Oakland Post

To enlarge your view of this issue, use the slider, magnifying glass icon or full page icon in the lower right corner of the browser window.

Oakland Post

Posts by Oakland Post

Bay Area

State Controller Malia Cohen Keynote Speaker at S.F. Wealth Conference

California State Controller Malia Cohen delivered the keynote speech to over 50 business women at the Black Wealth Brunch held on March 28 at the War Memorial and Performing Arts Center at 301 Van Ness Ave. in San Francisco. The Enterprising Women Networking SF Chapter of the American Business Women’s Association (ABWA) hosted the Green Room event to launch its platform designed to close the racial wealth gap in Black and Brown communities.

Published

2 weeks ago

April 20, 2024

Oakland Post

American Business Women’s Association Vice President Velma Landers, left, with California State Controller Malia Cohen (center), and ABWA President LaRonda Smith at the Enterprising Women Networking SF Chapter of the ABWA at the Black Wealth Brunch.

By Carla Thomas

The Enterprising Women Networking SF Chapter of the American Business Women’s Association (ABWA) hosted the Green Room event to launch its platform designed to close the racial wealth gap in Black and Brown communities.

“Our goal is to educate Black and Brown families in the masses about financial wellness, wealth building, and how to protect and preserve wealth,” said ABWA San Francisco Chapter President LaRonda Smith.

ABWA’s mission is to bring together businesswomen of diverse occupations and provide opportunities for them to help themselves and others grow personally and professionally through leadership, education, networking support, and national recognition.

“This day is about recognizing influential women, hearing from an accomplished woman as our keynote speaker and allowing women to come together as powerful people,” said ABWA SF Chapter Vice President Velma Landers.

More than 60 attendees dined on the culinary delights of Chef Sharon Lee of The Spot catering, which included a full soul food brunch of skewered shrimp, chicken, blackened salmon, and mac and cheese.

Cohen discussed the many economic disparities women and people of color face. From pay equity to financial literacy, Cohen shared not only statistics, but was excited about a new solution in motion which entailed partnering with Californians for Financial Education.

“I want everyone to reach their full potential,” she said. “Just a few weeks ago in Sacramento, I partnered with an organization, Californians for Financial Education.

“We gathered 990 signatures and submitted it to the [California] Secretary of State to get an initiative on the ballot that guarantees personal finance courses for every public school kid in the state of California.

“Every California student deserves an equal opportunity to learn about filing taxes, interest rates, budgets, and understanding the impact of credit scores. The way we begin to do that is to teach it,” Cohen said.

By equipping students with information, Cohen hopes to close the financial wealth gap, and give everyone an opportunity to reach their full financial potential. “They have to first be equipped with the information and education is the key. Then all we need are opportunities to step into spaces and places of power.”

Cohen went on to share that in her own upbringing, she was not guided on financial principles that could jump start her finances. “Communities of color don’t have the same information and I don’t know about you, but I did not grow up listening to my parents discussing their assets, their investments, and diversifying their portfolio. This is the kind of nomenclature and language we are trying to introduce to our future generations so we can pivot from a life of poverty so we can pivot away and never return to poverty.”

Cohen urged audience members to pass the initiative on the November 2024 ballot.

“When we come together as women, uplift women, and support women, we all win. By networking and learning together, we can continue to build generational wealth,” said Landers. “Passing a powerful initiative will ensure the next generation of California students will be empowered to make more informed financial decisions, decisions that will last them a lifetime.”

Oakland Post

Posts by Oakland Post

Business

Black Business Summit Focuses on Equity, Access and Data

The California African American Chamber of Commerce hosted its second annual “State of the California African American Economy Summit,” with the aim of bolstering Black economic influence through education and fellowship. Held Jan. 24 to Jan. 25 at the Westin Los Angeles Airport Hotel, the convention brought together some of the most influential Black business leaders, policy makers and economic thinkers in the state. The discussions focused on a wide range of economic topics pertinent to California’s African American business community, including policy, government contracts, and equity, and more.

Published

2 weeks ago

April 20, 2024

Oakland Post

Toks Omishakin, Secretary of the California State Transportation Agency (CALSTA), answers questions from concerned entrepreneurs frustrated with a lack of follow-up from the state. January 24, 2024 at the Westin Los Angeles Airport Hotel, Lost Angeles, Calif. Photo by Solomon O. Smith

By Solomon O. Smith, California Black Media

The California African American Chamber of Commerce hosted its second annual “State of the California African American Economy Summit,” with the aim of bolstering Black economic influence through education and fellowship.

Held Jan. 24 to Jan. 25 at the Westin Los Angeles Airport Hotel, the convention brought together some of the most influential Black business leaders, policy makers and economic thinkers in the state. The discussions focused on a wide range of economic topics pertinent to California’s African American business community, including policy, government contracts, and equity, and more.

Toks Omishakin, Secretary of the California State Transportation Agency (CALSTA) was a guest at the event. He told attendees about his department’s efforts to increase access for Black business owners.

“One thing I’m taking away from this for sure is we’re going to have to do a better job of connecting through your chambers of all these opportunities of billions of dollars that are coming down the pike. I’m honestly disappointed that people don’t know, so we’ll do better,” said Omishakin.

Lueathel Seawood, the president of the African American Chamber of Commerce of San Joaquin County, expressed frustration with obtaining federal contracts for small businesses, and completing the process. She observed that once a small business was certified as DBE, a Disadvantaged Business Enterprises, there was little help getting to the next step.

Omishakin admitted there is more work to be done to help them complete the process and include them in upcoming projects. However, the high-speed rail system expansion by the California High-Speed Rail Authority has set a goal of 30% participation from small businesses — only 10 percent is set aside for DBE.

The importance of Diversity, Equity and Inclusion (DEI) in economics was reinforced during the “State of the California Economy” talk led by author and economist Julianne Malveaux, and Anthony Asadullah Samad, Executive Director of the Mervyn Dymally African American Political and Economic Institute (MDAAPEI) at California State University, Dominguez Hills.

Assaults on DEI disproportionately affect women of color and Black women, according to Malveaux. When asked what role the loss of DEI might serve in economics, she suggested a more sinister purpose.

“The genesis of all this is anti-blackness. So, your question about how this fits into the economy is economic exclusion, that essentially has been promoted as public policy,” said Malveaux.

The most anticipated speaker at the event was Janice Bryant Howroyd known affectionately to her peers as “JBH.” She is one of the first Black women to run and own a multi-billion-dollar company. Her company ActOne Group, is one of the largest, and most recognized, hiring, staffing and human resources firms in the world. She is the author of “Acting Up” and has a profile on Forbes.

Chairman of the board of directors of the California African American Chamber of Commerce, Timothy Alan Simon, a lawyer and the first Black Appointments Secretary in the Office of the Governor of California, moderated. They discussed the state of Black entrepreneurship in the country and Howroyd gave advice to other business owners.

“We look to inspire and educate,” said Howroyd. “Inspiration is great but when I’ve got people’s attention, I want to teach them something.”