Politics

FACT CHECK: Why Bush’s Growth Forecast is a Stretch

Published

11 years ago

June 17, 2015

Republican presidential candidate, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush talks to members of the media after speaking to voters at the Derry Opera House, Tuesday, June 16, 2015, in Derry, N.H. Bush is campaigning in the nation’s earliest presidential primary state. (AP Photo/Jim Cole)

JOSH BOAK, AP Economics Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) — Republican presidential candidate Jeb Bush says there’s “not a reason in the world” why the U.S. economy can’t grow at 4 percent annually.

Actually, there are a bunch of reasons it probably can’t.

Many economists say the U.S. economy is ill equipped to grow consistently at even close to 4 percent. Current forecasts put growth averaging half that rate. Any president, Republican or Democrat, would have to overcome decades-long trends that are largely beyond the control of the Oval Office.

Those trends include the retirements of the vast generation of baby boomers — an exodus that limits the number of workers in the economy. Rising automation and low-wage competition overseas are among other factors. A result has been meager income growth, which has cut into the consumer spending that drives most economic growth.

“It would require substantial changes in fiscal and regulatory policy that I don’t believe any president could reasonably expect to enact in one term,” said Robert Stein, an economist at First Trust Advisors who was a Treasury Department official during George W. Bush’s presidency.

In his campaign announcement on Monday, Jeb Bush said “there is not a reason in the world why we cannot grow at a rate of 4 percent a year. And that will be my goal as president – 4 percent growth, and the 19 million new jobs that come with it.”

The pledge originated from a plan by the George W. Bush Institute to achieve growth averaging 4 percent for a decade.

Conservative economists defend the target as aspirational, a pledge that would leave the economy better off even if the next president fell short.

“I’m less concerned about the number than the commitment to grow rapidly,” said Douglas Holtz-Eakin, an economist who has advised Republican presidential candidates and now serves as president of the American Action Forum.

The historical odds of doubling growth from its current level are low.

Only four of the 16 presidential terms since World War II have experienced annual economic growth averaging more than 4 percent after inflation, according to research published last year by Princeton University economists Alan Blinder and Mark Watson.

President Harry Truman reaped the peace dividend as U.S. manufacturers helped rebuild nations devastated by World War II. The Kennedy and Johnson administrations enjoyed a boom because of tax cuts. And President Bill Clinton benefited during his second term from low interest rates and what eventually became a tech-stock bubble.

There are two primary ways to grow an economy faster: add more workers or increase their efficiency so that each hour on the job generates more income. Neither factor looks spectacular enough to deliver 4 percent growth, particularly since the share of Americans working has drifted downward as the number of retirees has increased.

“The demographics right now are for slowing population growth,” said Chad Stone, chief economist at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a liberal think tank.

The economy has 157.5 million workers, including the unemployed on the hunt for a job, according to the Labor Department. Their ranks increased just 0.3 percent in 2014, the best year for hiring since the late 1990s. When economic growth averaged roughly 4 percent during Clinton’s second term, the growth rate for the number of workers joining the economy averaged 1.5 percent, nearly five times higher than the current level.

Because baby boomers are starting to retire, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office expects the rate will remain low and hinder broader growth. The CBO in January estimated that growth would average just 2.1 percent annually from 2018 to 2025.

In theory, Bush as president could overcome that obstacle by welcoming substantially more immigrants in the United States. This would cause the growth rate of workers to rise much more quickly, said Michael Strain, deputy director of economic policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank.

But efficiency gains — what economists call productivity — would still be a challenge.

For the past seven years, productivity growth has averaged a poky 1.4 percent, according to the Labor Department. That’s nearly half its rate between 2000 and 2007. Economists say it’s generally difficult for government policymakers to unleash sudden bursts of productivity.

One easy form of boosting productivity would involve government spending in infrastructure such as roads, bridges, ports and airports.

Josh Bivens, director of research at the liberal Economic Policy Institute, sees these investments as the “most reliable lever” to bolster productivity. Yet he notes that a 10-year, $2.5 trillion government infrastructure program would increase economic growth only 0.2 to 0.3 percent annually.

That increase would not be nearly enough to achieve consistent 4 percent growth after inflation.

And the Republican presidential candidates have been committed to finding ways to shrink government’s footprint instead of introducing new spending programs.

“There’s really no way,” Bivens said.

___

Associated Press writer Ken Thomas contributed to this report.

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Economy

Poll: Becerra Widens His Lead Over Hilton; Californians Split on Wealth Tax

A new Public Policy Institute of California poll shows Democrat Xavier Becerra leads Republican Steve Hilton by 22 points in California’s governor’s race, with 60% of likely voters supporting Becerra compared to 38% for Hilton. The September survey also reveals Californians are closely divided on a proposed one-time tax on billionaires, with 52% of likely voters in favor of Proposition 40. Affordability issues are a major factor for voters. Read more to learn about the poll’s additional findings on voter sentiment.

Published

3 days ago

September 28, 2026

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Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton.

By Bo Tefu, California Black Media

Democrat Xavier Becerra holds a 22-point lead over Republican Steve Hilton in California’s governor’s race, while voters remain closely divided over a proposed one-time tax on billionaires, according to a new Public Policy Institute of California poll.

The September PPIC survey found that 60% of likely voters support Becerra, compared with 38% for Hilton. His lead is actually narrower than it was in July, when he led Hilton 61% to 36%.

Becerra leads among independent voters, with 57% supporting him compared with 38% for Hilton. Party loyalty remains strong, with 93% of Democratic likely voters backing Becerra and 92% of Republicans supporting Hilton.

Hilton leads in the Central Valley, where 52% of likely voters support him compared with 46% for Becerra.

Affordability remains a major factor: 65% of likely voters say candidates’ plans to address cost-of-living issues are “very important” to their vote.

“Affordability continues to be top of mind for Californians when considering their choice for governor,” said Mark Baldassare, PPIC Statewide Survey director and Miller Chair in Public Policy.

The poll also found a narrow split over Proposition 40, a proposed one-time tax of up to 5% on taxpayers with assets exceeding $1 billion. Fifty-two percent of likely voters said they would vote yes, while 46% said they would vote no.

Support for the wealth tax varies sharply by party. Seventy-two percent of Democrats favor Proposition 40, compared with 46% of independents and 21% of Republicans.

Two competing measures also drew majority support. Fifty-one percent back Proposition 41, while 54% support Proposition 42, both of which could affect the wealth-tax proposal.

The findings come as Californians express broader frustration with the state’s political direction. Seventy-one percent of likely voters expect bad economic times in California over the next year.

“Californians are clearly grumpy and aren’t enamored with any particular political party or movement,” Baldassare said.

The survey interviewed 1,745 California adults, including 1,103 likely voters, from Sept. 4-10. The margin of error for likely voters is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

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Community

LIVE FREE Sunday Dinner Brings Faith, Fellowship and Civic Conversation to Oakland

Approximately 50 members and guests gathered at Imani Community Church for a LIVE FREE Sunday Dinner, sharing a meal with Pastor Michael McBride. The event, hosted by Imani Community Church Pastor Jeremy McCants, focused on faith, community preparedness, and civic participation. Participants discussed “sacred resistance” and how communities can collectively respond to challenges, including practical suggestions for emergencies. The conversation also touched upon the importance of civic engagement and voting in the upcoming election. Read more to learn about the specific actions discussed.

Published

3 days ago

September 27, 2026

Post News Group

Imani Social Justice Team (left to right): Angela Noel, Zakiya Jendayi and Diane Doss. Patty Hallm, Susan Burns, Diane Lewis, Pastor Michael McBride, Theresa ???, Jean Moses and Diana Bell. Front: Sloane Johnson and (man whose name I'm getting to complete the identification). Photo by Octavian Kelly.

By Tanya Dennis

Pastor Michael McBride joins Imani Community Church Members for Food, Faith and Conversation about Community Action

Approximately 50 members and guests of Imani Community Church gathered Sunday afternoon for a LIVE FREE Sunday Dinner, sharing a meal with Pastor Michael McBride while discussing faith, community preparedness and civic participation.

Hosted by Imani Community Church Pastor Jeremy McCants, the Sept. 20 gathering was part of LIVE FREE’s Sunday Dinner initiative, which draws upon the tradition of families, neighbors and faith communities gathering around the Sunday dinner table to break bread and discuss issues affecting their lives.

McBride is founder of LIVE FREE and lead pastor of The Way Christian Center on University Avenue in Berkeley. His Bay Area ministry has deep roots. The congregation traces its history to a church planted by McBride’s grandmother in 1969. McBride returned to the Bay Area in 2005 and became its fourth pastor.

His ministry later expanded into community organizing and national advocacy. McBride founded LIVE FREE in 2011 following organizing work in Oakland and has been involved in efforts addressing gun violence, mass incarceration and civic engagement.

At Imani, the Sunday dinner concept was simple: sit down together, eat together and talk.

McBride recalled a time when Sunday dinner provided families and neighbors an opportunity to discuss what was happening in their communities. LIVE FREE has adapted that tradition into gatherings where faith communities and neighbors can meet, communicate, and consider how to respond collectively to current challenges.

Much of Sunday’s conversation centered on what McBride described as “sacred resistance,” bringing faith into discussions about how communities respond during difficult and uncertain times.

Participants considered a fundamental question: How do we make sense of what is happening around us, and how do we move forward?

The conversation was grounded in faith and prayer, but participants also discussed action and preparation. Attendees talked about not assuming that institutions and everyday systems will always function as expected.

Practical suggestions included keeping basic food staples such as rice and beans available during emergencies. Participants cited the water crisis in Flint, Michigan, as an example as they discussed communities that have experienced disruptions to essential services.

The broader message was one of preparedness and connection: neighbors should know and support one another before a crisis occurs.

The conversation also turned to civic participation and the upcoming election.

McBride’s message was brief: “Vote. We must vote.”

Participants were encouraged to register to vote, verify that their registration is current, and learn what will appear on their ballots. The discussion included researching candidates and ballot measures, voting early, and making a voting plan.

An Oct. 3 workshop was announced as another opportunity for community members to learn more about candidates, volunteer phone banking, ballot measures, and issues before voters.

For Imani’s Social Justice Team, the gathering provided another opportunity to share information with the congregation and surrounding community regarding Imani member Zakiya Jendayi, fighting for her home, and how the community can support her by attending a vigil at her Oakland home every Tuesday from 6-7 p.m. at 3614 Randolph Ave. 94610.

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Black History

Caribbean Nations Produce Action Plan Calling for UK Reparations Over Slavery

Caribbean nations are developing an action plan with legal options to press the United Kingdom for negotiations regarding slavery reparations. Officials at a recent conference indicated that regional leaders hope for targeted talks at upcoming Commonwealth and UN summits. However, if diplomatic efforts are resisted, the Caribbean nations are prepared to pursue international court action. A spokesperson for the British government recently reiterated its long-held position against paying reparations. Read more about the unified strategy being pursued.

Published

3 days ago

September 27, 2026

Post News Group

Bussa Emancipation Statue in Bridgetown, Barbados. Photo courtesy Wikimedia Commons.

By Post Staff

Caribbean nations are producing an “action plan” with legal options to push the United Kingdom (UK) into negotiating a decades-long slavery reparations deal, according to officials at a reparations conference.

Leaders in the region are hoping the UK would agree to targeted and constructive negotiation talks at upcoming Commonwealth and UN summits, but they are ready to take the matter to international courts if Britain continues to resist diplomatic options, according to the Guardian.

Earlier this month, a spokesperson reiterated the British government’s long‑held position that “the UK does not and will not pay reparations”.

Ralph Gonsalves, the former prime minister of St. Vincent and the Grenadines, said the Caricom Regional Conference on Reparations, which was hosted last week by Barbados with the Caricom Reparations Commission (CRC), was key for agreeing to a unified strategy to bring Britain to the negotiating table. Gonsalves is now an elder and adviser for the Repair Campaign, a social movement for reparatory justice.

He said that slavery happened over centuries and reparations had to be realistic and set over decades. “We need a concrete, multigenerational plan,” he said.

On the legal options available to the Caribbean, Gonsalves challenged arguments that Britain did not violate historical laws during transatlantic slavery, adding that the UK’s signature on contemporary UN conventions had established a binding legal obligation for reparative justice.

“The fact is that the consequences of slavery fall squarely under the Committee on the Elimination of Racial Discrimination, which obliges states to help address the consequences of native genocide and slavery,” Gonsalves said.