Politics

FACT CHECK: Why Bush’s Growth Forecast is a Stretch

Published

11 years ago

June 17, 2015

Republican presidential candidate, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush talks to members of the media after speaking to voters at the Derry Opera House, Tuesday, June 16, 2015, in Derry, N.H. Bush is campaigning in the nation’s earliest presidential primary state. (AP Photo/Jim Cole)

JOSH BOAK, AP Economics Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) — Republican presidential candidate Jeb Bush says there’s “not a reason in the world” why the U.S. economy can’t grow at 4 percent annually.

Actually, there are a bunch of reasons it probably can’t.

Many economists say the U.S. economy is ill equipped to grow consistently at even close to 4 percent. Current forecasts put growth averaging half that rate. Any president, Republican or Democrat, would have to overcome decades-long trends that are largely beyond the control of the Oval Office.

Those trends include the retirements of the vast generation of baby boomers — an exodus that limits the number of workers in the economy. Rising automation and low-wage competition overseas are among other factors. A result has been meager income growth, which has cut into the consumer spending that drives most economic growth.

“It would require substantial changes in fiscal and regulatory policy that I don’t believe any president could reasonably expect to enact in one term,” said Robert Stein, an economist at First Trust Advisors who was a Treasury Department official during George W. Bush’s presidency.

In his campaign announcement on Monday, Jeb Bush said “there is not a reason in the world why we cannot grow at a rate of 4 percent a year. And that will be my goal as president – 4 percent growth, and the 19 million new jobs that come with it.”

The pledge originated from a plan by the George W. Bush Institute to achieve growth averaging 4 percent for a decade.

Conservative economists defend the target as aspirational, a pledge that would leave the economy better off even if the next president fell short.

“I’m less concerned about the number than the commitment to grow rapidly,” said Douglas Holtz-Eakin, an economist who has advised Republican presidential candidates and now serves as president of the American Action Forum.

The historical odds of doubling growth from its current level are low.

Only four of the 16 presidential terms since World War II have experienced annual economic growth averaging more than 4 percent after inflation, according to research published last year by Princeton University economists Alan Blinder and Mark Watson.

President Harry Truman reaped the peace dividend as U.S. manufacturers helped rebuild nations devastated by World War II. The Kennedy and Johnson administrations enjoyed a boom because of tax cuts. And President Bill Clinton benefited during his second term from low interest rates and what eventually became a tech-stock bubble.

There are two primary ways to grow an economy faster: add more workers or increase their efficiency so that each hour on the job generates more income. Neither factor looks spectacular enough to deliver 4 percent growth, particularly since the share of Americans working has drifted downward as the number of retirees has increased.

“The demographics right now are for slowing population growth,” said Chad Stone, chief economist at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a liberal think tank.

The economy has 157.5 million workers, including the unemployed on the hunt for a job, according to the Labor Department. Their ranks increased just 0.3 percent in 2014, the best year for hiring since the late 1990s. When economic growth averaged roughly 4 percent during Clinton’s second term, the growth rate for the number of workers joining the economy averaged 1.5 percent, nearly five times higher than the current level.

Because baby boomers are starting to retire, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office expects the rate will remain low and hinder broader growth. The CBO in January estimated that growth would average just 2.1 percent annually from 2018 to 2025.

In theory, Bush as president could overcome that obstacle by welcoming substantially more immigrants in the United States. This would cause the growth rate of workers to rise much more quickly, said Michael Strain, deputy director of economic policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank.

But efficiency gains — what economists call productivity — would still be a challenge.

For the past seven years, productivity growth has averaged a poky 1.4 percent, according to the Labor Department. That’s nearly half its rate between 2000 and 2007. Economists say it’s generally difficult for government policymakers to unleash sudden bursts of productivity.

One easy form of boosting productivity would involve government spending in infrastructure such as roads, bridges, ports and airports.

Josh Bivens, director of research at the liberal Economic Policy Institute, sees these investments as the “most reliable lever” to bolster productivity. Yet he notes that a 10-year, $2.5 trillion government infrastructure program would increase economic growth only 0.2 to 0.3 percent annually.

That increase would not be nearly enough to achieve consistent 4 percent growth after inflation.

And the Republican presidential candidates have been committed to finding ways to shrink government’s footprint instead of introducing new spending programs.

“There’s really no way,” Bivens said.

___

Associated Press writer Ken Thomas contributed to this report.

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Activism

Stop the Hate Symposium Brings Oakland Together Through Dialogue, Partnership, and Community Healing

More than a meeting and panel discussion, the annual symposium serves as a powerful example of what can happen when neighbors, community leaders, and organizations choose conversation over division, and unity over silence.

Published

1 week ago

June 24, 2026

Oakland Post

Speakers and guests at the annual ‘Stop the Hate Symposium posed with Oakland Chinatown Improvement Council ambassadors. Photo by Marcus Calloway.

By Dr. Maritony Jones, Special to The Post

With the purpose of creating safer, stronger, and more inclusive communities, and in partnership with the Oakland Private Industry Council and other community organizations, the Oakland Chinatown Improvement Council (OCIC) hosted the ‘Stop the Hate Symposium’ on June 13 at the Oakland Asian Cultural Center.

The free event featured keynote speakers, breakout sessions, cultural programming, creating a space where people from many backgrounds sat together with a shared purpose.

The turnout itself reflected the urgency and importance of the topic. The room was packed with community members eager not only to listen, but also to participate. Throughout the event, speakers shared data, personal experiences, research, and practical solutions designed to address hate, violence, social inequity, and community safety.

The keynote panel featured respected leaders and advocates, including Ray Bobbitt, founder of the African American Sports & Entertainment Group (AASEG); Ryan Takemiya from RAMA; Caheri Gutierrez from the Unity Council; honorary guest speaker Oakland City Councilmember at-Large Rowena Brown and City Councilmember Charlene Wang; representatives for Oakland Mayor Barbara Lee and U.S. Rep. Lateefah Simon, with Gia Vang of NBC serving as moderator.

The symposium also offered multiple breakout sessions that addressed issues affecting communities across Oakland and Alameda County:

Session 1, 2, 3: Building Safer and More Inclusive Communities, led by Pastor Raymond Lankfort, CEO of Oakland Private Industry Council (OPIC), Jessica Kang, research manager for Stop AAPI Hate, Kara Guerra of The Unity Council, and Gabriela delaRiva of the Spanish Speaking Citizens Foundation
Session 4: Talk Story: Collective Healing and Relationship Repair, presented by Ryan Takemiya, executive director of RAMA
Session 5: Sexual Violence Prevention, presented by Tunisia Owens, interim deputy director of Realized Potential
Session 6: Violent Attacks on Teens, presented by MaryAnn Alvarado, program manager of Youth Alive

Every session contributed to an important truth: meaningful change begins within communities, through honest dialogue and a willingness to work together.

One of the strongest themes to emerge from the day was the need to create more conversations and stronger partnerships—not just during times of crisis, but consistently and intentionally. Relationships among organizations, neighborhoods, and community leaders often operate behind the scenes but are not always highlighted or celebrated.

Bobbitt spoke powerfully about this issue, noting that partnerships and relationships often go unrecognized despite being essential to community progress. He pointed to examples such as the partnership between OPIC and OCHIC, emphasizing that these collaborations deserve more visibility, investment, and expansion.

Perhaps his most memorable message resonated deeply throughout the room. Bobbitt explained that when a grandparent is attacked or harmed, the impact extends beyond race or ethnicity because today’s families and communities are increasingly multicultural and interconnected.

“We are not going to see our grandparents as just Latino, Asian, Caucasian, or African American,” he shared in essence. “We are going to see them simply as our grandparents.”

Those words reflected the heart of the symposium. Hate may target one group, but pain and loss are felt by everyone. Likewise, healing and progress are shared responsibilities.

For more information about the Stop The Hate Program visit the website: https://www.oaklandchinatownchamber.org/stop-the-hate (or) https://oaklandpic.or

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Six Months in, Probate Reform Coalition Marks Progress in Protecting Elders From Financial Abuse

Despite the cited obstacles, NPRC has made some promising inroads towards their mission. NPRC has identified that nationwide the Attorneys General must be engaged and encouraged to implement oversight, protection and enforcement of the law; members find support from each other as they advocate for redress via “letters of compassion” sent to judges, nursing facilities and law enforcement agencies and members are instructed on their rights, how to take constructive action to protect those rights through access to resources that allow them to intelligently represent themselves in court.

Published

1 week ago

June 24, 2026

Oakland Post

NPRC member Stewart E. Handte, a former Mineral County, Nevada, Sheriff and 27-year veteran of police work, currently wears an ankle monitor after he was arrested on kidnapping charges for helping his friend, Roger Hilligus, remove Hilligus’ mother, Susan Hilligus, from a nursing facility after finding her bruised and neglected. NPRC has submitted a “Letter of Compassion” for both Handte and Hilligus requesting that charges be dropped. Courtesy photo.

By Tanya Dennis

The National Probate Reform Coalition, a loose-knit national coalition of advocates, victims, and families dedicated to protecting elder rights, especially within the probate court system, was formed by the Post Newspaper Group (PNG) after more than a decade of reporting on the mistreatment of elders and the plunder of their estates.

In response, PNG Publisher Paul Cobb set in motion a series of monthly town halls to address the problem and propose workable solutions, designating it a “year of action.”

At six months, the coalition has attracted families, advocates, and experts across the nation whose strategies have proven effective in their respective states, and who are moving forward collectively with the mission of engaging judicial, legislative, and enforcement agencies to ensure elders are not exploited or abused.

“The issue of elder abuse is multi-layered”, says NPRC planning committee member Venus Gist. “Elders are our most vulnerable population, next to children, and they are easily exploited by strangers, their own family members, and the judicial system designed to protect them.”

Since January, NPRC has, via monthly virtual meetings held on the first Thursday of each month, clearly defined the issues and formulated workable solutions that can be implemented nationwide.

“There are amazing laws on the books that protect elders and their assets,” said NPRC member Zakiya Jendayi. “The problem is they are ignored, and that lack of oversight has led to systemic abuse in the Probate Court system, not just in Alameda County, but nationwide.

“The scary part is the collusion and wall of silence NPRC has encountered when reaching out to the Judicial Council, legislators, and the State Bar for assistance. It’s so obvious that one hand is washing the other, that they’re protecting each other, that it’s difficult to initiate any type of meaningful reform much less dialogue.”

Stacy Drake, a Texas member, says, “I’ve been looking for help for over 10 years with my situation, and I finally found it within the NPRC coalition. God answered my prayers.”

Broadening its reach within Alameda County, NPRC has invited Oakland Mayor Barbara Lee to assist with outreach, education, and resolution.

“We hope to host an elder abuse/elder protection symposium annually, if not twice a year, to let our elders know that Alameda County and the City of Oakland are a safe place, a place where in their golden years they have no worries regarding exploitation and abuse,” said Cobb. “Society is defined by how the care for its children and elders.”

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A Long Time Coming: School District Kicks Off Massive $97 Million Renovation of West Oakland’s McClymonds High School

The extensive project will involve the full modernization of the campus, including essential upgrades to building systems such as plumbing replacement (with lead abatement), seismic improvements, and modernization of heating, electrical, ventilation, and air conditioning systems. Indoor spaces will be updated with new flooring, wall treatments, and upgrades to classrooms, labs, shops, and sports locker rooms.

Published

1 week ago

June 24, 2026

Oakland Post

Renderings of McClymond High School renovation. Courtesy image.

‘We gather on sacred ground,’ said OUSD Supt. Denise Saddler

By Post Staff

After being stalled for many years, the massive $97 million renovation of McClymonds High School is finally breaking ground under the leadership of the district’s new superintendent, Dr. Denise Saddler, and backed by the unrelenting efforts of the school’s parents, students, school board members, community, and alumni.

The Oakland Unified School District (OUSD) held the groundbreaking ceremony on June 12 to kick off the three-year modernization project for McClymonds, a historic center of African American culture and educational opportunity in Oakland, located at 2607 Myrtle St. in West Oakland.

The overhaul will include seismic and environmental upgrades, a new turf field, and modernized campus facilities. The comprehensive transformation is financed by Measure Y, a $735 million general obligation bond approved by Oakland voters to renovate and upgrade aging school sites.

This renovation is considered a milestone for the West Oakland campus, which has operated in the same building since 1938 and has been in dire need of structural and plumbing safety remediation for years.

Speaking at the event, Supt. Denise Saddler said,

“We gather on sacred ground… that has shaped generations of Oakland leaders, scholars, artists, activists, entrepreneurs, educators like Mr. Herman Brown – one of our top math teachers. I also want to say it’s the historic home of the mighty Warriors (athletic teams). It’s a historic home of so many people.”

“This was, for Black people, our high school,” she continued “For more than a century, McClymonds has stood as a beacon of excellence in West Oakland and beyond. It’s not simply a school building; it’s a symbol of resilience, pride, community, and possibility.”

The superintendent said the legacy of McClymonds includes legendary alumni such as NBA player-coach Bill Russell, whose excellence transformed the game of basketball and whose courage helped transform the nation.

The school’s legacy also includes MLB players Frank ‘Judge’ Robinson and Curt Flood, basketball player Paul Silas and civic leaders including Lionel Wilson, a Superior Court judge and Oakland’s first African American mayor.

She emphasized that the groundbreaking was not only about honoring the past, but also about investing in the future.

“(It) represents Oakland’s commitment to the young people of West Oakland. It sends a powerful message that our students deserve facilities that match their brilliance, their talent and their dreams. “

The cafeteria also will be reconfigured, and outdoor areas will feature a new grandstand, track and field upgrades, accessible field bathrooms and concessions, and updates to the plaza, garden, and outdoor gathering areas.

Mayor Barbara Lee, who attended the event, thanked Oakland voters for passing the Measure Y bond that is paying for the school’s renovation.

Renderings of McClymond High School renovation. Courtesy image.

“It’s a good day – It’s a good news day,” she said. “The voters who (approved) Measure Y care about our young people. Today, we have the opportunity on this historic day to say, well done. Thank you to the voters for the facilities our community, our students, our teachers deserve.”

School Board member VanCedric Williams, whose district includes McClymonds, said that OUSD passed repeated school bond measures for decades, promising to renovate the school, but it did not happen.

“I just want to thank all the community (who) put pressure on the district to do right, to hold school board members accountable, and to really say, ‘We’re not going to take anything less than a renovation.’”

“When I first met Dr. Saddler, she said, ‘I have a commitment to McClymonds – I’m going to make it happen.’ And she has done something in one year that has not been done in 20 years. So, I have the belief that we’re going to get it done.”

Rising senior LaTanya Nolen, praised the school for the opportunities she has received and for the dedication of its staff.

“Every student here is treated like they matter and given opportunities to grow and build onto themselves,” she said. “We’ve gotten to do things like sports, field trips, college and career excursions, networking, and more. Our futures are taken seriously, and the people around us are always pushing us so that we are prepared for it.”

Parent Brejea Colthirst said, “Thank you to everyone who had a part in this, who helped make this possible. Together, we are building something special.”

Brian McGhee, popular McClymonds staff member and alumni, pledged to build on the strength of McClymonds’ traditions. “Mack is back. We’re going to up the enrollment with this new school. We’re going to continue to know every student’s name who comes through this school. My job as a community manager is going to continue to provide resources for our families and our students, and continue to communicate with our parents, which is huge.”