Bay Area

“California Draining:” Stanford Report Explores Why More Californians Are Moving to Texas and Arizona Than Ever Before

“California lost a net of 407,000 residents to other states between July 2021 and July 2022, including a greater share of those with a college degree and residents at all income levels than in the past,” the report reads.

Published

3 years ago

November 4, 2023

Oakland Post

Photo courtesy California Black Media.

By California Black Media

From the Gold Rush of the 1800s to the iconic unofficial state song “California Dreamin’,” the Golden State has built an enviable reputation.

It has become known around the world as a destination for fortune seekers, economic opportunities, and a laidback West Coast lifestyle made more desirable by pleasant weather and a picturesque natural landscape that incorporates breathtaking scenes — from the Pacific coast cliffs and glistening inland lakes to snow-capped mountains and lush forests housing the Earth’s oldest tree species.

However, over the last few years, that perception of California’s exceptional desirability is being challenged as the state loses population to Arizona and Texas at higher levels than ever before, including a greater share of college graduates and residents at all income levels, according to a report dubbed “California Draining,” released by the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR).

The state’s high cost of living has spurred many businesses and residents to exit, posing serious consequences for the state’s job market and fiscal outlook. California is still the largest state in the U.S. with more than 39 million residents as of 2022, constituting 11.7% of the U.S. population, according to SIEPR’s report.

From 1959 to 2022, California’s average rate of population growth was 1.52%, but since 2000, it has been consistently below that number. The state even experienced negative growth in 2021 and 2022.

Among recent movers, Black residents make up about 12% of people exiting the state, a significant number in a state where the total Black population hovers around 5.7%.

The report states that two-thirds of those who moved said that politics was not a factor in their decision, but the population loss has political consequences: California lost a congressional seat after the 2020 census.

SIEPR draws from an original survey of residents in California, Arizona and Texas conducted jointly by researchers at Stanford University, Arizona State University, and the University of Houston.