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COMMENTARY: Is America’s Ethnic Vote a Blue Wave Rising or Falling?

One might chalk up the ethnic vote slide to turnout. But considering motivating factors like the economy, abortion, or even the fate of democracy, I think despite good turnout, some may be tired of divided government and willing to test new ideas that might work for them.

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Emil Guillermo is a journalist and commentator. His web show is on www.amok.com
Emil Guillermo is a journalist and commentator. He does a webshow on www.amok.com

By Emil Guillermo

A week ago, there was no Red Wave. Was there a Blue one?

If you look at other exit polls, not as much as there could have been.

BIPOC voters were seen and heard on election night. And their unity was the key.

But from the numbers, it appears the coalition is beginning to fray a bit.

Overall, whites were 72% of the voters on November 8, according to the Associated Press Vote Cast exit polling. And they voted Red (Republican) 59% to 39% Blue (Democratic).

Those among that 39% are allies to traditional BIPOC voters. And we’d better hope that number grows.

Comprising less than 25% of voters on November 8, BIPOC voters could still use all the help they can get. While they provided surprisingly good midterm election results for Democrats, it should have been even better.

It wasn’t.

The reason? Blues are becoming ever slightly less blue.

Sure, on election night BIPOC voters were predominantly Democratic, and thanks to that, we did we see an unexpected “mini-Blue Wave.”

Blacks made up 11% of the voters and went 83% Blue, with just 14% Red.

That’s high, but it was still lower by up to seven percentage points compared to the 2018 midterms, according to network exit polling and the AP VoteCast poll, as reported by the Washington Post.

Hispanic/Latino voters were 11% of the electorate on November 8 and were 56% Blue to 40% Red.

Again, that’s a decrease of about 9 to 10 percentage points from the 2018 midterms.

Asian Americans were just 2% of the November 8 voters and were 64% Blue to 34% Red.

That’s in keeping with what the AALDEF exit poll found in its 15-state multilingual exit poll that targeted Asian American/Pacific Islander.

But in the 2018 midterms, Asian American Blue support was around 71%.

Native Hawaiians/Pacific Islanders were less than .5% of the voters and were 58% Blue to 38% Red. That’s lower than the AA part of the Asian Ameican Native Hawaiian Pacific Islander.

I was also surprised that American Indian voters, just 1% of the voters on November 8, were 37% Blue to 57% Red.

So, are American Indian voters already where the rest of the BIPOC voters are heading? One might chalk up the ethnic vote slide to turnout. But considering motivating factors like the economy, abortion, or even the fate of democracy, I think despite good turnout, some may be tired of divided government and willing to test new ideas that might work for them.

Could that new idea possibly be Donald Trump?

TRUMPY REDUX?

Trump, who was set to announce his candidacy for a third run for president this week, is doing so into a headwind. His election deniers have lost. For governor, for Congress, for state level election chiefs. He is no longer seen as a winner. He is a bona fide loser among losers. Even the exit polling on favorability for Trump is disastrous.

How can he possibly win? By acknowledging how America’s demographics have changed and begin courting the ethnic vote.

I don’t mean the Herschel Walkers, whom Dave Chappelle on SNL called “observably stupid.”

I mean regular folks who see themselves as independent swing voters.

I say this not in jest, though I wish I were.

Courting the ethnic vote was one of the things the GOP seemed committed to in 2016, but then Trump came in and the GOP embraced the Trump base.

That would be the irony if outreach to ethnic voters might be the one thing that could help the future of the GOP and Trump–by taking advantage of what looks to be a diminishing Blue lock on ethnic voters.

Of course, it might also lose them to the rabid and racist Trump base, the mostly white Jan. 6 folks, who saw in Trump the one person who would represent their xenophobic tendencies in a white world that is shrinking.

That might actually be a good thing to see them shamed back under a rock.

It boils down to which group could make the GOP and Trump winners again.

If you don’t want to see that, work to keep the BIPOC coalition stronger than ever in the fight for civil rights, voting rights, immigration rights, LGBTQ rights, abortion rights.

The ethnic vote may not be bluer than blue, but it’s still majority blue.

And that’s all you need in a democracy.

Emil Guillermo is a journalist and commentator. He does a show on www.amok.com

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Activism

Discrimination in City Contracts

The report was made public by Councilmember Carroll Fife, who brought it this week to the Council’s Life Enrichment Committee, which she chairs. Councilmembers, angry at the conditions revealed, unanimously approved the informational report, which is scheduled to go to an upcoming council meeting for discussion and action. The current study covers five years, 2016-2021, roughly overlapping the two tenures of Libby Schaaf, who served as mayor from January 2015 to January 2023.

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Dr. Eleanor Ramsey (top, left) founder, and CEO of Mason Tillman Associates, which conducted the study revealing contract disparities, was invited by District 3 Councilmember Carroll Fife (top center) to a Council committee meeting attended by Oakland entrepreneur Cathy Adams (top right) and (bottom row, left to right) Brenda Harbin-Forte, Carol Wyatt, and councilmembers Charlene Wang and Ken Houston. Courtesy photos.
Dr. Eleanor Ramsey (top, left) founder, and CEO of Mason Tillman Associates, which conducted the study revealing contract disparities, was invited by District 3 Councilmember Carroll Fife (top center) to a Council committee meeting attended by Oakland entrepreneur Cathy Adams (top right) and (bottom row, left to right) Brenda Harbin-Forte, Carol Wyatt, and councilmembers Charlene Wang and Ken Houston. Courtesy photos.

Disparity Study Exposes Oakland’s Lack of Race and Equity Inclusion

Part 1

By Ken Epstein

A long-awaited disparity study funded by the City of Oakland shows dramatic evidence that city government is practicing a deeply embedded pattern of systemic discrimination in the spending of public money on outside contracts that excludes minority- and woman-owned businesses, especially African Americans.

Instead, a majority of public money goes to a disproportionate handful of white male-owned companies that are based outside of Oakland, according to the 369-page report produced for the city by Mason Tillman Associates, an Oakland-based firm that performs statistical, legal and economic analyses of contracting and hiring.

The report was made public by Councilmember Carroll Fife, who brought it this week to the Council’s Life Enrichment Committee, which she chairs. Councilmembers, angry at the conditions revealed, unanimously approved the informational report, which is scheduled to go to an upcoming council meeting for discussion and action.

The current study covers five years, 2016-2021, roughly overlapping the two tenures of Libby Schaaf, who served as mayor from January 2015 to January 2023.

The amount of dollars at stake in these contracts was significant in the four areas that were studied, a total of $486.7 million including $214.6 million on construction, $28.6 million on architecture, and engineering, $78.9 million on professional services, and $164.6 million on goods and services.

While the city’s policies are good, “the practices are not consistent with policy,” said Dr. Eleanor Ramsey, founder and CEO of Mason Tillman Associates.

There have been four disparity studies during the last 20 years, all showing a pattern of discrimination against women and minorities, especially African Americans, she said. “You have good procurement policy but poor enforcement.”

“Most minority- and women-owned businesses did not receive their fair share of city-funded contracts,” she continued.  “Over 50% of the city’s prime contract dollars were awarded to white-owned male businesses that controlled most subcontracting awards. And nearly 65% of the city’s prime contracts were awarded to non-Oakland businesses.”

As a result, she said, “there is a direct loss of revenue to Oakland businesses and to business tax in the city…  There is also an indirect loss of sales and property taxes (and) increased commercial office vacancies and empty retail space.”

Much of the discrimination occurs in the methods used by individual city departments when issuing outside contracts. Many departments have found “creative” ways to circumvent policies, including issuing “emergency” contracts for emergencies that do not exist and providing waivers to requirements to contract with women- and minority-owned businesses, Ramsey said.

Many of the smaller contracts – 59% of total contracts issued – never go to the City Council for approval.

Some people argue that the contracts go to a few big companies because small businesses either do not exist or cannot do the work. But the reality is that a majority of city contracts are small, under $100,000, and there are many Black-, woman- and minority-owned companies available in Oakland, said Ramsey.

“Until we address the disparities that we are seeing, not just in this report but with our own eyes, we will be consistently challenged to create safety, to create equity, and to create the city that we all deserve,” said Fife.

A special issue highlighted in the disparity report was the way city departments handled spending of federal money issued in grants through a state agency, Caltrans. Under federal guidelines, 17.06%. of the dollars should go to Disadvantaged Business Enterprises (DBEs).

“The fact is that only 2.16% of all the dollars awarded on contracts (went to) DBEs,” Ramsey said.

Speaking at the committee meeting, City Councilmember Ken Houston said, “It’s not fair, it’s not right.  If we had implemented (city policies) 24 years ago, we wouldn’t be sitting here (now) waiving (policies).”

“What about us? We want vacations. We want to have savings for our children. We’re dying out here,” he said.

Councilmember Charlene Wang said that she noticed when reading the report that “two types of business owners that are consistently experiencing the most appalling discrimination” are African Americans and minority females.

“It’s gotten worse” over the past 20 years, she said. “It’s notable that businesses have survived despite the fact that they have not been able to do business with their own city.”

Also speaking at the meeting, Brenda Harbin-Forte, a retired Alameda County Superior Court judge, and chair of the Legal Redress Committee for the Oakland NAACP, said, “I am so glad this disparity study finally was made public. These findings … are not just troubling, they are appalling, that we have let  these things go on in our city.”

“We need action, we need activity,” she said. “We need for the City Council and others to recognize that you must immediately do something to rectify the situation that has been allowed to go on. The report says that the city was an active or inactive or unintentional or whatever participant in what has been going on in the city. We need fairness.”

Cathy Adams, president of the Oakland African American Chamber of Commerce, said, “The report in my opinion was very clear. It gave directions, and I feel that we should accept the consultant Dr. Ramsey’s recommendations.

“We understand what the disparities are; it’s going to be upon the city, our councilmembers, and our department heads to just get in alignment,” she said.

Said West Oakland activist Carol Wyatt, “For a diverse city to produce these results is a disgrace. The study shows that roughly 83% of the city contracting dollars went to non-minority white male-owned firms under so-called race neutral policies

These conditions are not “a reflection of a lack of qualified local firms,” she continued. “Oakland does not have a workforce shortage; it has a training, local hire, and capacity-building problem.”

“That failure must be examined and corrected,” she said. “The length of time the study sat without action, only further heightens the need for accountability.”

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COMMENTARY: The National Protest Must Be Accompanied with Our Votes

Just as Trump is gathering election data like having the FBI take all the election data in Georgia from the 2020 election, so must we organize in preparation for the coming primary season to have the right people on ballots in each Republican district, so that we can regain control of the House of Representatives and by doing so, restore the separation of powers and balance that our democracy is being deprived of.

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Dr. John E. Warren Publisher, San Diego Voice & Viewpoint
Dr. John E. Warren, Publisher San Diego Voice & Viewpoint Newspaper. File photo..

By  Dr. John E. Warren, Publisher San Diego Voice & Viewpoint Newspaper

As thousands of Americans march every week in cities across this great nation, it must be remembered that the protest without the vote is of no concern to Donald Trump and his administration.

In every city, there is a personal connection to the U.S. Congress. In too many cases, the member of Congress representing the people of that city and the congressional district in which it sits, is a Republican. It is the Republicans who are giving silent support to the destructive actions of those persons like the U.S. Attorney General, the Director of Homeland Security, and the National Intelligence Director, who are carrying out the revenge campaign of the President rather than upholding the oath of office each of them took “to Defend The Constitution of the United States.”

Just as Trump is gathering election data like having the FBI take all the election data in Georgia from the 2020 election, so must we organize in preparation for the coming primary season to have the right people on ballots in each Republican district, so that we can regain control of the House of Representatives and by doing so, restore the separation of powers and balance that our democracy is being deprived of.

In California, the primary comes in June 2026. The congressional races must be a priority just as much as the local election of people has been so important in keeping ICE from acquiring facilities to build more prisons around the country.

“We the People” are winning this battle, even though it might not look like it. Each of us must get involved now, right where we are.

In this Black History month, it is important to remember that all we have accomplished in this nation has been “in spite of” and not “because of.” Frederick Douglas said, “Power concedes nothing without a struggle.”

Today, the struggle is to maintain our very institutions and history. Our strength in this struggle rests in our “collectiveness.” Our newspapers and journalists are at the greatest risk. We must not personally add to the attack by ignoring those who have been our very foundation, our Black press.

Are you spending your dollars this Black History Month with those who salute and honor contributions by supporting those who tell our stories? Remember that silence is the same as consent and support for the opposition. Where do you stand and where will your dollars go?

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Activism

Congresswoman Simon Votes Against Department of Homeland Security, ICE Funding

“They need accountability. Republicans already gave these agencies an unprecedented $170 billion for immigration enforcement, funding they have used to conduct raids at schools, separate families, and deploy a masked paramilitary who refuse to identify themselves on American streets. This bill gives them more funding without a single reform to stop unconstitutional, immoral abuses,” she said.

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Congresswoman Lateefah Simon (D-CA-12). File photo.
Congresswoman Lateefah Simon (D-CA-12). File photo.

By Post Staff

Congresswoman Lateefah Simon (D-CA-12) released a statement after voting against legislation to fund the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), which supports Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CPB).

“Today, I voted NO on legislation to fund the Department of Homeland Security through Feb. 13, 2026.

“ICE and CBP do not need more funding to terrorize communities or kill more people,” she said in the media release.

They need accountability. Republicans already gave these agencies an unprecedented $170 billion for immigration enforcement, funding they have used to conduct raids at schools, separate families, and deploy a masked paramilitary who refuse to identify themselves on American streets. This bill gives them more funding without a single reform to stop unconstitutional, immoral abuses,” she said.

“The American people are demanding change. Poll after poll of Americans’ opinions show overwhelming support for requiring ICE agents to wear body cameras and prohibiting them from hiding their faces during enforcement actions. This is the bare minimum transparency standard, and this funding legislation does not even meet this low bar,” Simon said.

“Republicans in Congress are not serious about reining in these lawless agencies. Their refusal to make meaningful changes to the DHS funding bill has consequences that go beyond immigration enforcement. TSA agents who keep our airports safe and FEMA workers who help our communities recover from disasters are stuck in limbo due to Republican inaction.

“The Constitution does not have an exception for immigrants. Every person on American soil has rights, and federal agencies must respect them. The East Bay has made clear at the Alameda County and city level that we will hold the line against a violent ICE force and support our immigrant communities – I will continue to hold the line and our values with my votes in Congress.”

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