Politics

FACT CHECK: Why Bush’s Growth Forecast is a Stretch

Published

11 years ago

June 17, 2015

Republican presidential candidate, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush talks to members of the media after speaking to voters at the Derry Opera House, Tuesday, June 16, 2015, in Derry, N.H. Bush is campaigning in the nation’s earliest presidential primary state. (AP Photo/Jim Cole)

JOSH BOAK, AP Economics Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) — Republican presidential candidate Jeb Bush says there’s “not a reason in the world” why the U.S. economy can’t grow at 4 percent annually.

Actually, there are a bunch of reasons it probably can’t.

Many economists say the U.S. economy is ill equipped to grow consistently at even close to 4 percent. Current forecasts put growth averaging half that rate. Any president, Republican or Democrat, would have to overcome decades-long trends that are largely beyond the control of the Oval Office.

Those trends include the retirements of the vast generation of baby boomers — an exodus that limits the number of workers in the economy. Rising automation and low-wage competition overseas are among other factors. A result has been meager income growth, which has cut into the consumer spending that drives most economic growth.

“It would require substantial changes in fiscal and regulatory policy that I don’t believe any president could reasonably expect to enact in one term,” said Robert Stein, an economist at First Trust Advisors who was a Treasury Department official during George W. Bush’s presidency.

In his campaign announcement on Monday, Jeb Bush said “there is not a reason in the world why we cannot grow at a rate of 4 percent a year. And that will be my goal as president – 4 percent growth, and the 19 million new jobs that come with it.”

The pledge originated from a plan by the George W. Bush Institute to achieve growth averaging 4 percent for a decade.

Conservative economists defend the target as aspirational, a pledge that would leave the economy better off even if the next president fell short.

“I’m less concerned about the number than the commitment to grow rapidly,” said Douglas Holtz-Eakin, an economist who has advised Republican presidential candidates and now serves as president of the American Action Forum.

The historical odds of doubling growth from its current level are low.

Only four of the 16 presidential terms since World War II have experienced annual economic growth averaging more than 4 percent after inflation, according to research published last year by Princeton University economists Alan Blinder and Mark Watson.

President Harry Truman reaped the peace dividend as U.S. manufacturers helped rebuild nations devastated by World War II. The Kennedy and Johnson administrations enjoyed a boom because of tax cuts. And President Bill Clinton benefited during his second term from low interest rates and what eventually became a tech-stock bubble.

There are two primary ways to grow an economy faster: add more workers or increase their efficiency so that each hour on the job generates more income. Neither factor looks spectacular enough to deliver 4 percent growth, particularly since the share of Americans working has drifted downward as the number of retirees has increased.

“The demographics right now are for slowing population growth,” said Chad Stone, chief economist at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a liberal think tank.

The economy has 157.5 million workers, including the unemployed on the hunt for a job, according to the Labor Department. Their ranks increased just 0.3 percent in 2014, the best year for hiring since the late 1990s. When economic growth averaged roughly 4 percent during Clinton’s second term, the growth rate for the number of workers joining the economy averaged 1.5 percent, nearly five times higher than the current level.

Because baby boomers are starting to retire, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office expects the rate will remain low and hinder broader growth. The CBO in January estimated that growth would average just 2.1 percent annually from 2018 to 2025.

In theory, Bush as president could overcome that obstacle by welcoming substantially more immigrants in the United States. This would cause the growth rate of workers to rise much more quickly, said Michael Strain, deputy director of economic policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank.

But efficiency gains — what economists call productivity — would still be a challenge.

For the past seven years, productivity growth has averaged a poky 1.4 percent, according to the Labor Department. That’s nearly half its rate between 2000 and 2007. Economists say it’s generally difficult for government policymakers to unleash sudden bursts of productivity.

One easy form of boosting productivity would involve government spending in infrastructure such as roads, bridges, ports and airports.

Josh Bivens, director of research at the liberal Economic Policy Institute, sees these investments as the “most reliable lever” to bolster productivity. Yet he notes that a 10-year, $2.5 trillion government infrastructure program would increase economic growth only 0.2 to 0.3 percent annually.

That increase would not be nearly enough to achieve consistent 4 percent growth after inflation.

And the Republican presidential candidates have been committed to finding ways to shrink government’s footprint instead of introducing new spending programs.

“There’s really no way,” Bivens said.

___

Associated Press writer Ken Thomas contributed to this report.

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2025 in Review: Seven Questions for Black Women’s Think Tank Founder Kellie Todd Griffin

As the president and CEO of the California Black Women’s Collective Empowerment Institute, Griffin is on a mission to shift the narrative and outcomes for Black women and girls. She founded the nation’s first Black Women’s Think Tank, securing $5 million in state funding to fuel policy change.

Published

5 days ago

December 14, 2025

Oakland Post

Kellie Todd Griffin. CBM file photo.

By Edward Henderson
California Black Media

With more than 25 years of experience spanning public affairs, community engagement, strategy, marketing, and communications, Kellie Todd Griffin is recognized across California as a leader who mobilizes people and policy around issues that matter.

Griffin spoke with California Black Media (CBM) about her successes and setbacks in 2025 and her hopes for 2026.

Looking back at 2025, what stands out to you as your most important achievement and why? 

Our greatest achievement in this year is we got an opportunity to honor the work of 35 Black women throughout California who are trailblazing the way for the next generation of leaders.

How did your leadership, efforts and investments as president and CEO California Black Women’s Collective Empowerment Institute contribute to improving the lives of Black Californians? 

We’re training the next leaders. We have been able to train 35 women over a two-year period, and we’re about to start a new cohort of another 30 women. We also have trained over 500 middle and high school girls in leadership, advocacy, and financial literacy.

What frustrated you the most over the last year?

Getting the question, “why.” Why advocate for Black women? Why invest in Black people, Black communities? It’s always constantly having to explain that, although we are aware that there are other populations that are in great need, the quality-of-life indices for Black Californians continue to decrease. Our life expectancies are decreasing. Our unhoused population is increasing. Our health outcomes remain the worst.

We’re not asking anyone to choose one group to prioritize. We are saying, though, in addition to your investments into our immigrant brothers and sisters – or our religious brothers and sisters – we are also asking you to uplift the needs of Black Californians. That way, all of us can move forward together.

What inspired you the most over the last year?

I’ve always been amazed by the joy of Black women in the midst of crisis.

That is really our secret sauce. We don’t let the current state of any issue take our joy from us. It may break us a little bit. We may get tired a little bit. But we find ways to express that – through the arts, through music, through poetry.

What is one lesson you learned in 2025 that will inform your decision-making next year?

Reset. It’s so important not to be sitting still. We have a new administration. We’re seeing data showing that Black women have the largest unemployment rate. We’ve lost so many jobs. We can have rest – we can be restful – but we have to continue the resistance.

In one word, what is the biggest challenge Black Californians faced in 2025?

Motivation.

I choose motivation because of the tiredness. What is going to motivate us to be involved in 2026?

What is the goal you want to achieve most in 2026?

I want to get Black Californians in spaces and places of power and influence – as well as opportunities to thrive economically, socially, and physically.

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Oakland School Board Grapples with Potential $100 Million Shortfall Next Year

The school board approved Superintendent Denise Saddler’s plan for major cuts to schools and the district office, but they are still trying to avoid outside pressure to close flatland schools.

Published

5 days ago

December 14, 2025

Oakland Post

OUSD Supt. Denise Saddler. File photo.

By Post Staff

The Oakland Board of Education is continuing to grapple with a massive $100 million shortfall next year, which represents about 20% of the district’s general fund budget.

The school board approved Superintendent Denise Saddler’s plan for major cuts to schools and the district office, but they are still trying to avoid outside pressure to close flatland schools.

Without cuts, OUSD is under threat of being taken over by the state. The district only emerged from state receivership in July after 22 years.

“We want to make sure the cuts are away from the kids,” said Kampala Taiz-Rancifer, president of the Oakland Education Association, the teachers’ union. “There are too many things that are important and critical to instruction, to protecting our most vulnerable kids, to safety.”

The school district has been considering different scenarios for budget cuts proposed by the superintendent, including athletics, libraries, clubs, teacher programs, and school security.

The plan approved at Wednesday’s board meeting, which is not yet finalized, is estimated to save around $103 million.

Staff is now looking at decreasing central office staff and cutting extra-curricular budgets, such as for sports and library services. It will also review contracts for outside consultants, limiting classroom supplies and examine the possibility of school closures, which is a popular proposal among state and county officials and privatizers though after decades of Oakland school closures, has been shown to save little if any money.

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Mayor Lee, City Leaders Announce $334 Million Bond Sale for Affordable Housing, Roads, Park Renovations, Libraries and Senior Centers

Saying “Oakland is on the move,” Mayor Barbara Lee announces results of Measure U bond sale, Dec. 9, at Oakland City Hall with city councilmembers and city staff among those present. Photo courtesy of the City of Oakland.

Published

5 days ago

December 14, 2025

Oakland Post

Saying “Oakland is on the move,” Mayor Barbara Lee announces results of Measure U bond sale, Dec. 9, at Oakland City Hall with city councilmembers and city staff among those present. Photo courtesy of the City of Oakland.

By Post Staff

The City of Oakland announced this week that it is successfully moving forward on the sale of $334 million of General Obligation bonds, a milestone that will provide the city with capital funding for city departments to deliver paved roads, restored public facilities, and investments in affordable housing.

“Oakland is on the move and building momentum with this bond sale,” said Oakland Mayor Barbara Lee. “We are reviving access to funding for paving our streets, restoring public facilities we all use and depend upon, and investing in affordable housing for our community, all while maintaining transparency and fiscal discipline.”

“These bonds represent our city’s continued commitment to sound financial management and responsible investment in Oakland’s future,” said Lee.

“Together, we are strengthening our foundation for generations to come,” she said. “I’m grateful to our partners in the City Council for their leadership and support, and to City Administrator Jestin Johnson for driving this process and ensuring we brought it home.”

According to the city, $285 million of the bonds will support new projects and $49 million of the bonds will refund existing bonds for debt service savings.

Oakland issued the Measure U bonds on Dec. 4 after two years of delays over concerns about the city’s financial outlook. They all sold in less than a week.

The new money bonds will pay for affordable housing, roadway safety and infrastructure improvements, and renovations to parks, libraries, senior centers, and other public facilities under the city’s Measure U Authorization.

Citywide paving and streetscape projects will create safer streets for Oaklanders. Additionally, critical facilities like the East Oakland Senior Center and San Antonio Park will receive much-needed renovations, according to the city.

Some of the projects:

$50.5 million – Citywide Street Resurfacing
$13 million – Complete Streets Capital Program
$9.5 million – Curb Ramps Program
$30 million – Acquisition & Preservation of Existing Affordable Housing
$33 million – District 3: Mandela Transit-Oriented Development
$28 million – District 6: Liberation Park Development
$3 million – District 5: Brookdale Recreation Center Capital Project
$1.5 million – District 1: Oakland Tool Lending Library (Temescal Branch Library)
$10 million – District 3: Oakland Ice Center

“I recognize that many naysayers said we couldn’t do it,” said Johnson. “Well, you know what? We’re here now. And we’re going to be here next year and the year after. The fact is we’re getting our fiscal house in order. We said we were going to do it — and we’re doing it.”

Investors placed $638 million in orders for the $334 million of bonds offered by the City. There was broad investor demand with 26 separate investment firms placing orders. The oversubscription ultimately allowed the city to lower the final interest rates offered to investors and reduce the city’s borrowing cost.

“The oversubscription ultimately allowed the City to lower the final interest rates offered to investors and reduce the City’s borrowing cost,” said Sean Maher, the city’s communications director.

“The Oakland City Council worked closely with the administration to both advance the bond issuance process and ensure that the community had a clear understanding of the City’s timeline and approach,” said Councilmember at-Large Rowena Brown.

“In September, the City Council took unanimous action to authorize the Administration to move forward with the bond sale because these funds are essential to delivering the very improvements our communities have long asked for – safer streets, restored public facilities, and expanded affordable housing,” she said.

Continuing, Brown said, “I want to extend my sincere thanks to City Administrator Jestin Johnson, Finance Director Bradley Johnson, and Mayor Barbara Lee for their leadership, diligence, and steady guidance throughout the City’s bond sale efforts.

“Navigating complex market conditions while keeping Oakland’s long-term infrastructure needs front and center is no small task, and this moment reflects tremendous professionalism and persistence,” she said.

Moody’s gave the city an AA2 rating on the bonds, its third-highest rating, which it gives to high-quality investment-grade securities.

There was both a tax-exempt portion and a taxable portion for the bond offering, reflecting the various uses of the bond proceeds, according to a statement released by the city.

The $143.5 million of tax-exempt bonds have a 30-year final maturity and received an all-in borrowing cost of 3.99%. The $191 million of taxable bonds have a 24-year final maturity and received an all-in borrowing cost of 5.55%.

The $49 million in tax-exempt bonds that refinance existing obligations of the City resulted in $5.6 million of debt service savings for taxpayers through 2039, or $4.7 million on a present value basis.

Mayor Lee said that, based on her experience serving on the House Financial Services Committee of the U.S. Congress for more than 10 years, city staff has done an exemplary job.

“I have witnessed many cities go to the bond market throughout the years,” she said. “I can tell you with certainty that Oakland’s team is remarkable, and our residents should be proud of their reputation, their competence, and their deep knowledge of this very sophisticated market.”

Looking ahead to the final sale of the bonds, according to the city press statement, pricing marks the point at which the City and investors locked in the final dollar amounts, interest rates, and other key terms of the bond sale. This stage is commonly referred to as the sale date. At pricing, no funds are exchanged. The actual delivery of bonds and receipt of monies occurs at closing, which is scheduled within the next two weeks.

Capital projects receiving this funding will proceed on individual timelines based on their individual conditions and needs. At the time of closing, funding will be immediately available to those projects.